Research On Prevention System For Country Risk Of Oil And Gas Resources Investment In Central Asia

Since the1990s, along with our country economy high speed development, theenergy, especially the rapidly rising demand for oil and gas resources, thecontradiction between supply and demand of domestic oil and gas is rising. Supportedby overseas investment in oil and gas supplies of oil and gas resources in our countryto become China’s strategic requirements. Our surrounding the central Asia has hugereserves of oil and gas energy, especially kazakhstan, uzbekistan and turkmenistan,three state-owned rich oil and gas resources. Is adjacent to central Asia and China, nomatter from the human resources, geographical advantages, or space, there are a lot ofcooperation in the economic structure in China since the1980s in the region has a lotof investment projects, but central Asia the polytropy of complex social and economicenvironment, policy, law and investment information asymmetry, and other factors,also make our energy investment enterprises investment in the region faces manyrisks. So we urgent need a set of effective central Asia countries risk early warningsystem, risk in real-time dynamic monitoring of central Asia, timely and accurateprovide the risk assessment and early warning of feedback to energy companies inChina. This to guide our country energy investment enterprise optimize investmentlocation choice, to reduce the investment risk, effective risk control has the extremelyimportant practical significance and theory significance. This article is precisely underthis background, by means of risk management and early warning theory, togetherwith the present situation of China’s energy enterprises energy investments in centralAsia, focuses on three parts: the first part, the central Asian countries, oil and gasresources to conduct a comprehensive investment risk analysis, established for thesecond part of the country risk evaluation index system in the region against doing matting, the index system includes five level1and18secondary risks. The secondpart, the establishment of a central Asia oil and gas resources investment country riskearly warning system, the entire awacs including target management system,management information system, risk assessment system, risk with five modules,system and organization management system of the composition and function of eachmodule has made the detailed elaboration separately. Risk assessment system of theestablishment of a central Asia country risk evaluation index system and using thefuzzy mathematical evaluation method combined with analytic hierarchy processmethod to establish the central Asia oil and gas resources investment country riskevaluation model, so as to improve the accuracy of the early warning results andeffectiveness. The third part, case analysis, selection of the oil field in kazakhstansand in investment as the research object, this paper applied to build the riskearly-warning mechanism of risk evaluation and analysis, and according to the resultsof the risk early warning analysis put forward the corresponding countermeasure,verify the early warning system established in this paper, practical.