Shanxi Province, Housing Security Level Prediction

Housing is the most basic right for humans. To meet the basic housing needs of the people, all the countries in the world take great attention to the housing problem. In recent years, China’s rapid economic development and the establishment of the housing market system has lead to the raising of the price of commercial residential building, causing the low-income families unable to purchase the commercial residential building. Thus, housing security became the focus of public attention. The state has increased the construction of indemnificatory housing since2007, and launched the "12th Five-Year Plan" housing security in2011, letting the construction of indemnificatory housing enter into a rapid development stage. Shanxi Province has paid highly attention to the construction of indemnificatory housing, increased the number of indemnificatory housing construction year by year. During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the state plans to build1,231,100units indemnificatory housing. However, such a large-scale construction of indemnificatory housing construction is bound to need a lot of money, which would to bring pressure on government finances that could be imagined. Therefore, how to determine an appropriate level of housing security and plan a reasonable number of constructions is an important and urgent topic that Shanxi needs to do for better doing the indemnificatory housing work.Currently is the middle and late period of the "12th Five-Year Plan" Based on the long-term and stability of the policy, this paper studies the housing security issues from the perspective of predictive analyses. This paper first reviews the results of previous studies, summarize the theories of housing security level and research perspectives of scholars from both at domestic and abroad. Then the development of housing security of Shanxi Province and its major problems is discussed, followed by the establishment of the index system. The level of housing security factors is divided into three categories: economic development, residents’consumption and housing, and the housing market situation, from which the paper selects twelve key indicators as a reference. By Principal Component Analysis and Sensitivity Analysis Method, it is showed that the residents’consumption and housing is the most important factor and thus this factor is taken as key factor in the subsequent prediction research. The prediction of housing security level is divided into three steps. The first step is to measure the household income line of housing security, the second step is to forecast the newly-added housing security expenditure, and the third step is to use the predictive model to predict the level of housing security of Shanxi from2013to2017. At last, this paper makes some recommendations to the development of Shanxi housing security.In this paper, the analysis the factors of housing security level and prediction of the housing security level in Shanxi has a certain theoretical and practical significance. It has a reference value in:estimating the level of housing security for a certain period, developing phased measures, to grasp the overall level of housing security and establishing long-term housing security policy.