Research On The Impact Of Natural Gas Demand Forecast On Pipeline Construction In Low-Carbon Economy

Due to its clean，efficient features，natural gas got the whole community’sattention and the gas market is facing an unprecedented development opportunity. Atthis point，the policy "gasification Jilin" which conforms to the development of thetimes，has advanced to the popularity of natural gas from the promotion process.However，the existing gas pipeline has been unable to meet the growing transportationof natural gas. So it has been the focus how to predict the demand for natural gas inChangchun and how to construct natural gas pipelines much faster and morereasonable in this paper.In this paper，according to the policy of the reconstruction project of gas pipelinenetwork in Changchun，the current status of the population and pipe laying processtransformation is analyzed. Natural gas consumption from2013to2017is predictedusing gray forecasting model，quadratic exponential smoothing and multiple linearregressions，which has its pros and cons. To synthesize the advantages of each model，entropy evaluation method is used to determine the weight and predict. Comparingthe predicted value and the actual value of the combined forecast，it improvesprediction accuracy.According to the predicted value of natural gas consumption in Changchun City，three aspects of the promotion and popularization of natural gas is explained thesignificance.1.In the case of the equal calorific value，the use of natural gas rather caneffectively reduce carbon dioxide emissions than coal. As the cleaning properties ofnatural gas，hazardous gases produced by combustion are less，which can not onlyeffectively reduce carbon dioxide emissions，but also reduce by almost100%sulfurdioxide and dust emissions， by nearly70%nitrogen oxide emission，which reducesgreenhouse effect and improves the quality of atmospheric environment.2.The cost of investment in natural gas enterprise network transformation projectis calculated. Incur expense includes the cost of materials,transport costs，preservationcosts，maintenance costs. Revenue and expense includes capital subsidies from localgovernments，natural gas costs and so on. According to the pipeline30-40yearsservice life it is expected to be about a seven-year cost recovery，and gas companiescan have a23-33year period gain profit. 3. Due to the comparison of the use of natural gas，coal and electricity，residentscan save20%-30%of household spending through the use of natural gas，whichFully reflects the natural gas pipe network transformation projects can benefit bothbusinesses and residents as one of the vital people-benefit project.Although the popularization of natural gas brings a lot of benefits the currenttransport capacity of gas pipeline facilities，as a basis for the construction hashampered the development of natural gas. Contradiction between supply and demandis increasingly prominent. How to strengthen the ability to run natural gas pipeline?How to save construction costs? In this paper，reasonable suggestions are given whichincludes the choice of materials， technology innovation， operational safety，management，etc. It helps to perfect the construction of gas pipeline network systemin the future，and to improve the ability of natural gas pipelines，then，to promoteurban development and accelerate economic growth.