Research On The Prediction Of Potential Accidents Of The Ordinary Arterial Highway In Mountain Area Based On The Quantification Theory

Due to the special geographical condition of mountains, the environment of traffic operating is harsh and the problem of traffic safety is serious. At present, the way to improve traffic safety focus on the regulation of accident black spot so that some accidents’ point which exist but not seriously translate into accident black spot. Therefore, in order to improve the running environment of mountainous ordinary arterial highway and eliminate potential accidents, it is necessary to research on the prediction technology of mountainous ordinary arterial highway to determine the security level of potential accidents. Then take measures to improve the conditions of mountainous ordinary arterial highway.Firstly, according to the survey result of the mountainous ordinary arterial highway in An Kang with typical mountainous characteristic and various types of integrated document, we analysis the road’ and traffic’ characteristics from 5 aspects: the road environment, traffic safety facilities, transportation environment, management and maintenance of traffic accidents.Secondly, based on the principle of establishing index system, referencing to the characteristics of traffic accidents, analysis the accident risk factors of mountainous ordinary arterial highway on the objective environment, such as road environment traffic environment, traffic safety facilities, and so on. At the same time, taking into considering the study object which is microscopic sections, cull indicators and establish predictors of mountainous ordinary arterial highway. Then, introduce the way to obtain the data and classifying the qualitative indicators which based on the basic principle of predictive model.Then, based on the advantages of the first theory of quantification model for qualitative variables processing, build prediction model of potential accidents in mountainous ordinary arterial highway on the basic the first theory of quantification. And introduce basic rules of the model, accuracy testing and calculate the contribution of each factor on the model. The paper randomly selected 75 points sample from the section of S225(Ping Lee to Zhen ping) in An kang City, Shaanxi Province to standardize the model.Finally, the paper selected typical road from the S207(Ying hu to Lan gao) as the examples of the application of predicting model. Determine the security’ level of the road on the basis of model results to prove the general applicability of the accidents’ prediction techniques of mountainous ordinary arterial highway.