The Scenario-response Planning Based On Case-drived Method For Community Emergency Evacuation

With the development of civilization and the acceleration of city construction,the population of the city which is the main area for people living and working is growing significantly.On one hand the growing population drives the social development,on the other hand the crowd of people is the risk of accidents and the root of secondary disaster.Usually,where there is more population there will be a greater disaster after an accident,the crowd of people and material makes the city more vulnerable when the accidents happen,especially for the building in the city where there are a lot of people,if there are not enough evacuation facility or evacuation decision is not unreasonable,once the accident happen there will be a significant loss.Community which is the basic space unit,function unit and administrative region unit is more important in disaster prevention and reduction,because of the high population density and diversity,the research of co mmunity emergency evacuation is classical.This paper studied emergency management issue based on scenario-response,made use of the theory and methodology for management,computer science and disaster science,and proposed case-model drived method of the scenario-response planning which could be used in community emergency evacuation.According to the order of emergency evacuation theory,emergency evacuation planning framework,scenario-response modeling and ontology construction to design the research path of the paper.Firstly,reviewing the theory of emergency evacuation,and proposing the basic theory of the paper--case driven theory and scene cognition theory.In the proecess,composition of case and task reasoning were proposed based on emergency evacuation theory;the connotation of scene cognition and scene framework were proposed based on scene cognition theory.Comparing the cases of three kinds of community emergencies,extracting scene features and task features of emergency evacuation based on existing researches and cases.Secondly,designing the community emergency evacuation planning framework.Through the analysis of plan,decision,task,capacity for emergency evacuation,the framwork which mainly contains disaster scenario cognition layo ut,emergency evacuation resource layout and emergency evacuation “data-information-knowledge” layout was proposed.Based on this,three elements were built including hazard,evacuation object and evacuation task.Es pecially,the case-based reasoning function module was introduced into this framework,which can improve the operational efficiency and implementation effect of the corresponding community emergency evacuation management system.Besides,a case-driven community emergency evacuation scenario-response modeling method was proposed.Structure model and ontology model were built based on case-driven method and intelligent modeling technique to formalize the process meta-model,scenario meta-model and task meta-model of community emergency evacuation,and to model in the uncertain environment and dynamic environment.Then,we showed the method of community emergency evacuation ontology construction based on case-driven.In the process of construction,we divided community emergency evacuation influence factors ontology into five parts,then studied the evacuation status ontology,and build the framework of community emergency evacuation status ontology.In the process we found that knowledge ontology sharing has a significant influence on evacuation effici ency,so we built the framework of knowledge ontology sharing and studied the sharing process and implementation path to ensure that emergency evacuation task could be accomplished orderly and efficiently.Finally,a case-driven tabletop training method is proposed for community emergency scenario decision-making.This method integrates case-based reasoning,meta-synthetic method and insight learning method to build the emergency tabletop training and learning mechanism called “Interaction-Learning-Insight-Strengthening(ILIS)”,which can improve the decision-making ability of emergency decision-makers towards the specific disaster scenario by decision-making opinions generation of the source case,decision-making opinions interactive learning of the target case,insight and inspiration,and strengthening test.