Research On Emergency Resource Allocation Based On Scenario Analysis

In recent years, Emergency has occurred frequently in our country, which brings great damage not only to people’s lives and property,but also to the harmonious and sustainable development of our society, causing wide concern in government and academic community. Emergency is so uncertain, complex and difficult to predict that more destructive derivative disasters may appear as the situation develops. Thus, it often causes great economic losses and casualties. It tends to be a complicate system engineering for emergency rescue, and demand prediction and allocation of the emergency resource is the precondition and the key point of emergency rescue, affects not only the overall efficiency and effectiveness of the rescue work, but also people’s life security, economic development and social stability of the disaster area. So, the key to improve the efficiency of the rescue and minimize the disaster losses is to classify the wide varieties of emergency resources, make quick prediction about the demand type and quantity after the emergency, and then quickly and effectively configure the resource. Based on the Foreign and Domestic Research, we studied the demand and allocation problem of the emergency resources in this paper as follows:Emergency is unrepeatable, peculiar and unexpected, this paper studies the problem of emergency resource demand and allocation with the method of scenario analysis. Based on the complexity of the emergency and the characteristics of the emergency resource demand, we categorize the emergency resource and provide the process of emergency decision-making plan in the mode of "scenario-response".As the widely impact and great damage of the emergency in real disaster scenarios, multiple disaster areas often appear as well as the demand for various emergency resource is urgent with huge quantity. We established a two stage model with multi-disaster area and multi-resource during the research of resource allocation. To solve this model, we first figured out the multi-objective location model based on the facility location theory in emergency resource allocation, and then optimize the allocation of resources according to it.Emergency will evolve into different direction according to their own law of development and the outside intervention, which will cause different derivative scenario and ending scenario, and the disaster area’s demand for different types and quantities of emergency resource will change with the scenario changes. We established a multi-disaster area multi resource model based on the scenario analysis with secondary disaster taken into account, which will be of certain value for practical emergency decision.