Study On The Demand Of Early Childhood Education Resources Under The "Two-children Policy" In Different Functional Zones Of Province X

The future changes in population interact with the development of education. On one hand, the number and age structure of a population will affect education scale and structure; on the other hand, education can help to control the size of the population and raise its quality. And that’s why policy maker should base educational policy on population projection.In the almost past 30 years, Chinese government insisted on strict population control policy. But in recent years, with the disappearing of population bonus, the government began to change its population policy. On 21 st.12.2015, National People’s Congress Standing Committee passed the Amendment to Population and Family Planning Act. And this act will affect the number and age structure of Chinese population in the future, as a result, will affect the educational planning. Obviously, pre-school education is to be influenced at first. So it’s urgent and significant to forecast the population and to make proper educational plan.This research is a case study of Province X. In the research, CPPS is used to forecast the trend of the children ranging between 3-6 years old in Province X during 2016-2035. CCM is used to compute the kindergarten children based on the school-aged children. Then the demand and supply of pre-school education resource in Province X is discussed. In addition to that, the demand and supply of pre-school education resource in different main functional zones(including Dushi Functional Zone, Xincheng Functional Zone, Dongbei Functional Zone and Dongnan Functional Zone) is discussed, because the pre-school education varies in different main functional zones.The research shows that, influenced by the Amendment to Population and Family Planning Act, the number of kindergarten children will increase from 2019, and will peak in 2022. Dushi Functional Zone will peak in 2022, Xincheng Functional Zone in 2024, Dongbei Functional Zone in 2026,Dongnan Functional Zone 2027.After their peaks, the number of kindergarten children of each functional zones will decline. It indicates that the teacher deficiency and fund shortage will become the restriction of pre-school education after 2019. So the government should raise educational funds and open more normal schools to train more qualified teachers after 2019. And after the peak year, government should reduce the input gradually. As there are so many private kindergartens in Province X, it’s a good choice for the government to cooperate with the runners of kindergartens to make sure that the education resource is allocated effectively. And to achieve the goal of fairness, more fiscal power should be given to local government to make sure enough funds can be raised and distributed to pre-school education.