Impact Of Population Aging On Pension Expenditure

In recent years,the aging population issue has become a problem of public concern.Changes in the population age structure indeed relate to the balance of the labor market,the adjustment of industrial structure and even the entire national economy development and social stability.The birth rate,mortality indicators continue to decline, indicating the arrival of an aging population. Population aging in the global expansion of the world continue to impact the pension insurance system.The world set off a wave of pension system reform.Looking at Europe and the United States of reforms, including the following aspects.First,to support and encourage the development of supplementary pension insurance model to build multilevel old-age insurance system. Second,by encouraging fertility and increasing foreign immigration,efforts to improve their working-age population.Third,continue to improve the basic service facilities for elderly population.Fourth,to extend the retirement age and to encourage older self-reliant.Under an aging population,the proportion of workers of pension contributions gradually lower than the proportion of workers pension, pension fund balance of payments gap continues to expand.In the wave of pension system reform,China is also actively engaged in exploring China’s socialist pension insurance model suitable for economic development and population aging characteristics.Part four and five are the focus of the study,the fourth part is the impact of population aging on pension expenditure.In this part of the study,I construct dynamic panel data models and estimate by the system GMM. Estimation process achieved mainly through statal2. The fifth part focuses on the development of China’s aging population trend in the future,as well as trends in pensions. In an aging population forecasts,the paper select CPPS developed by committee of China’s population aging.In order to make simulation results more in line with our forecast population growth,I give three assumptions of total fertility rate.The sixth census data is a basis data for predicting the base year.Then I analyze the changes in the elderly dependency ratio. Ultimately,It predicts the trajectory of the level of old-age insurance spending the next four decades.Conclusions of this study are summarized as follows:First,China has entered a period of rapid development of population aging,making our pension system facing tougher challenges and impact.Second,it is significant that aging impacts on pension expenditure levels,and we get about the impact factor of0.434. To this end,we should not only take various measures to ease the crisis of an aging population,but also improve aging as an important part of the future pension system reform.Third,the next four decades the level of pension expenditures increased significantly,it has been close to high welfare level of developed countries in2030,but it can not be ignored is that the higher level of benefits will be enormous burden on the state financial expenditure and is not conducive to economic sustainable development. Fourth,it is fortunate that our country still exists demographic dividend period of twenty years or so.We should seize the last golden age of population development.By analysis of population aging and pension insurance system, this paper put forward six policy recommendations.First,to gradually extend the retirement age,and developed mechanisms for different retirement based on gender and occupational characteristics.Second,considering of urban and rural aging inverted and status of low pension coverage,the next focus of national policy is that improve rural pension insurance system and gradually establish integrated urban and rural social pension insurance system.Third, through tax incentives and other policies to encourage the development of a variety of supplementary pension insurances.Fourth,actively seeking pension fund investment market,to expand the scope of investmentFifth,vigorously support the development of pension services,through the re-employment training to enhance professionalism and competitiveness of elderly population. In addition, not only pay attention to the material life of the elderly population, but also to pay attention to the quality of the spiritual life of the elderly population.