The Effect Of Sex Ratio On The Pension Insurance Funds Expenditure On The Background Of The Fertility Policy

Since the implementation of family planning policy in China in the 1980s,the sex ratio has risen significantly compared to the previous period in which birth was not controlled.According to demographic census data,the sex ratio of the birth population in China was 107.63,111.27,119.92,and 121.2 in the third,fourth,fifth,and sixth census data,respectively.From the initial increase in growth rate to the current imbalance in sex ratio,the family planning policy has a direct effect on the sex ratio.Since 2002,China has gradually liberalized its fertility policy.However,at present,the sex ratio in China is still high around the world,and the gender ratio in our country continues to rise as a result of boy preferences and fertility policies.The imbalance of gender ratio will lead to a series of social problems.For example,the imbalance of sex ratio leads to men's competitive disadvantage in the marriage market,and high saving rates in China(S.Wei and X.Zhang,2011).According to the statistical data of Shandong Statistical Yearbook,the sex ratio in Shandong Province has continued to rise since 2005.The long-term imbalance in sex ratio will lead to the phenomenon of male marriage squeeze,which will make it difficult for most men to marry.Single males give their parents less financial support than married males.With the progress of society,the elderly will gradually change their desire from rearing sons for their old age to raising daughters for help in old age.In addition,single elderly men will have less initiative to provide their own pension arrangements in the middle-aged youth,will rely more on social and financial resources.However,with the aging of the population,more countries are facing the problem of insufficient pensions and the countries' financial burdens are increasing.In order to ensure the orderly development of the country's stable society,it is necessary to actively cope with the problem of imbalance of the sex ratio and increase of expenditure of pension insurance to ensure the sustained development of the country's culture,politics,and economy.This paper manually collected panel data from 17 cities in Shandong Province from 2002 to 2015.The sex ratio is used as the main explanatory variable.The expenditure of social pension insurance is used as the explanatory variable.Based on individual and time effects,the fixed-effect regression of the data shows that the sex ratio has a significant positive correlation with the level of pension insurance expenditure.That is,by increasing the sex ratio of one unit,the pension insurance expenditure will increase by 7.5%,and it will be significant at the 5%level.It shows that the imbalance of the sex ratio will exacerbate the state's fiscal pension burden.Further,this article also measured the degree of influence of sex ratio on the level of social pension insurance expenditure under the influence of education level and traditional cultural concepts.By dividing education levels into higher education levels and lower education levels,this article finds that the improvement of education level will ease the effect of sex ratio on the pension insurance expenditure,while traditional cultural concepts will increase the influence of gender ratio on pension insurance expenditure.At the same time,this paper takes into account that the traditional Chinese boy preference culture and other variables that may be missed will lead to the imbalance in the sex ratio as an endogenous variable,resulting in inconsistent estimates.In order to overcome the endogenous nature,this paper adopts the method of instrumental variables.That is to say,the number of medical institutions per 10,000 persons is used as the instrumental variable of gender ratio to identify the impact of gender ratio on pension insurance expenditure.With the two stage least squares method(2SLS),the expenditure on pension insurance will increase by 8.5%for each additional unit of sex ratio.This paper further considers that change in China's fertility policy from 2002 to 2015 will affect the sex ratio.We eliminated the data for 2013-2015(the "selective two-child policy" in 2013 and the "universal two children policy" in 2015)and found that when the sex ratio is increased by one unit,the pension insurance expenditure will increase by 9.1%.In addition,the paper also re-estimates the sex ratio and the results are still robust.The key issue that this article attempts to solve is the extent to which the sex ratio of the population affects the expenditure of social pension insurance,and how it will ease the pressure on the government in pension.Using the panel data of 17 cities in Shandong Province from 2002 to 2015,the impact of sex ratio on social pension insurance expenditure was studied.It was found that with the sex ratio increased by one unit,the pension insurance expenditure will increase by 8.5%.This article proposes the following policy recommendations for retirement from the perspective of sex ratio as a breakthrough:First,transform and upgrade the fertility policy and make adjustments to the policy in due course;Second,establish and improve the family planning interest-oriented mechanism and social security system;Third,Strengthen family planning management and technical services;Fourth,increase the investment in education and promote gender equality;Fifth,increase fiscal revenue and speed up the development of the local economy.