The Research On The Impact Of Economic Growth By Changes In Population Age Structure Of China

In the 1980s,China adopted every couple having only one child policy.Under this policy,China's population birth rate and natural fertility rates from 1970 to 33.43 ‰ and 25.83 ‰ quickly dropped to 12.08 ‰ and 4.92 ‰ in 2013.With the continuous decline in fertility,the population age structure has greatly changed,which has a negative impact on the long-term healthy growth of China's economy.In 2013,the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China decided to change our country's population policy for the two separate child policy.Then at the beginning of the New Year 2016,it was changed for the universal two-child policy.Economists agreed that the universal two-child policy is beneficial to adjusting the population's structure,which was considered an important reform measure to driving the long-term and sound development of China's economy.Therefore,at this moment this thesis studies on the effect that the universal child policy made on China's future economic growth,which makes it more real national conditions and has strong significance in reality.Age structure of population generally doesn't have a direct effect on economic growth,yet through influencing the intermediate transmission variables and then the economic growth.This thesis selects three intermediate transmission variables including labor supply,savings rate and human capital accumulation to analyze the impact of age structure of population on economic growth.Firstly,the thesis reviews and comments the related theory that the domestic and foreign scholars have studied about the age structure of labor supply,savings rate,human capital accumulation and economic growth and the literature reviews.Based on the model of the neoclassical economic growth,it made a comprehensive analysis of the population age structure on the growth pattern of economy from the perspective of the supply of production factors.This thesis based on the population data of 2015 predicts Chinese future population age structure of 2050 through the Leslie model.It selects the statistical data of from 1995 to 2014 for 20 years to establish the regression model that population age structure has made on economic growth,savings rate and the accumulation of human capital.From the perspective of empirical study,it also analyses the impact of population age structure on the intermediate variables and the economic growth.Through the prediction of data of the population age structure and the conclusions of empirical studies,this thesis has got the following conclusions.Firstly,the flexible population age structure can provide more labor forces and improve labor participation rate,which has a significant influence on economic growth.Secondly,there exists a positive correlation between the old dependency and the ratio of residents' savings rate,there also exists a negative correlation between the children's dependency and the ratio of residents' savings rate.Thirdly,there is a positive correlation between the accumulation of human capital and the ratio of the seniors' dependency and a negative correlation with ratio of the children's dependency.Fourthly,because of the longer delay of the universal two-child policy,it is difficult to greatly change the China's population age structure in a short.Therefore,in the short term that is about twenty years form the present to the 2035,the positive effect that this policy makes on China's future economic growth can't be reflected.In the long run,this policy will start have a positive effect because the universal two-child policy will change China's population age structure significantly since 2035.Finally,on the basis of the conclusions of this thesis,this thesis puts forwards the related policies and suggestions combining with current situation of China's population age structure and birth policy.