The Effects Of Age Structure Of Population On Housing Demand

Since the commercialization reform of China’s housing market, China’s real estate industry has been facing the contradiction of being a pillar of the national economy as well as on behalf of rigid demand to protect people’s lives, the contradiction of providing luxury housing supply as well as demanding affordable housing. Housing price has been rising rapidly and the basic housing needs of residents cannot be satisfied, so the government frequently introduce regulatory measures on the real estate market. Population is the main body of housing demand, changes in the age structure of the population has a profound impact on housing demand. Moreover, China’s population is undergoing great fertility policy adjustments, the new policy will have a profound impact on the population structure.Therefor, there is positive influence to predict the population age structure and its impact on the demand for housing in the future on the protection of the basic housing needs of residents to achieve the healthy development of the housing market.This paper firstly describes social background and the significance of this issue, as well as research content and research methods, innovations and shortcomings. Then this paper elaborates research on the affect of the population age structure on housing demand, researches abroad are mainly around Mankiw and Weil (1989); Domestic literature summary are mainly quantitative analysis to analyze how the age structure of the population effecting demand for housing impact, including macro and micro perspective, the experience of foreign and domestic data analysis. Then China’s housing system development and demographic change are introduced as social background, especially the housing system reform and "total second child" fertility policy are emphasized.In the part of study design of the empirical analysis, this paper starts from Mankiw-Weil population age structure-housing demand model, uses the 2000 census microdata to conduct regression analysis to confirm the theoretical model, and then seeks theoretical support from OLG Model. After this, dependent viarable, independent viarables and control viarable are selected. In empirical analysis section, this paper first established economic model to analyse national data; then the similarities and differences of eastern, central and western regions are discussed in the econometric modele.This paper concludes that now savings of old people will increase housing demand by transferring from generation to generation which effect will not last for long. The proportion of working-age population influence housing demand in the same direction of it’s own moving. Even under "total second children" fertility policy, all factors of the age structure of population will decrease housing demand in the future. By combining the existing research on the prediction of China’s population age structure under "total second children" fertility policy, this article discusses the impacts the population age structure has on housing demand under the new fertility policy. On this basis, this paper presents relevant policy recommendations such as regulating and controlling ahead of schedule, implementing fertility policies which are more open, and transforming the pressure from aging.