The Study On The Influence Of The Age Structure Change To Residents' Housing Demand

Since twenty-first century,the rapid development of real estate industry has become an important pillar of China's economy.Therefore,the impact of the healthy and stable development of the real estate market on the household consumption is also getting more and more attention.Many scholars point out that real estate has dual properties of consumption and investment.Its impact on the household consumption is complex.In order to deeply analyze the mechanism of real estate fluctuation influencing residents consumption and provide some reasonable ideas of control,this paper analyzes the change mechanism and change tendency of housing demand from the perspective of population age structure.Based on this analysis,this paper provides some ideas of control.This paper adopts the method of theoretical analysis,experience analysis and empirical analysis to comb the existing research achievements in detail.According to demographic transition theory,housing demand decision theory and consumption decision theory,this paper illustrates the logical relationship between population age structure and housing demand.Thus it sets up the theoretical framework of this paper.By summing up the experience ofJapan and the United States,the author finds that the development of economy and real estate are influenced by the change of population structure.And the "baby boom" creates a large number of labor force,which is the important foundation of economic and real estate boom.Meanwhile,this paper concludes the characteristics of current population age structure in our country,including declining proportion of the working population,aggravating aging trend,the inverted Pyramid population structure.These problems bring serious downward pressure to economy and real estate market,and also have a profound impact on the consumer demand.In the empirical analysis,this paper constructs the theory of housing demand decision based on population age structure,and uses the panel data of 30 provinces and cities from 1999 to 2014 to test the relationship between population age structure and housing demand.By using the ADF test with Hausman test,this paper uses the generalized least squares method under the fixed effects for estimation.The result shows that the dependency ratio of population is negatively correlated with housing demand and the elderly dependency ratio is positively correlated with housing demand.Research shows that the rise of population dependency ratio will lead to a decline in housing demand,which is in line with China's current situation and international experience.And the rising proportion of elderly people accompanied by the “baby boom” population into the age of marriage.Considering the bequest motives of aging population,it presents a kind of phenomenon that increasing proportion of the elderly population and strong housing demand coexist.In order to cope with the challenges of demographic shifts,the real estate regulation needs to consider the change of population factor from overall situation.Based on this situation,this paper puts forward some ideas of adjustment about housing supply and demand policy.Firstly,promoting the healthy development of the real estate industry based on people-centred;secondly,promoting the new urbanization of population;thirdly,adjusting the aggregate supply growth of real estate to maintain the balance of supply and demand in the real estate market;finally,strengthening the supervision measures of real estate market to prevent the abnormal development of real estate market.