Research On The Impact Of The Evolution Of My Country's Population Birth Policy On Housing Demand

In past decades,China's economy has been continuously growing.Population flows frequently,and the city increasingly urbanized.In that case,the price of house continues to rise rapidly,and the "difficulty of buying a house" has become one of the main problems that affect people's life.As a country with large population,the structure shows trendy characteristics obviously,and it will continuely flourish.But with the approaching of the turning point of demographic dividend and the the reduction of birth ratethe age of population?the promotion of urbanization,it is undeniable that population structure is changing.This will inevitably affect the demand of the real estate market.Therefore,the reasons of why housing demand change are worthy to our studies.This paper tries to explain in detail from the perspective of population factor change from the policy of population reproduction.System exploration,in the different stages of fertility policy,the impact of demographic factors on housing demand is of great importance both in theory and in reality.This not only enables us to have a comprehensive understanding of the effects of specific variables in population structure on housing demand,but also to achieve a reasonable adjustment of housing policy,so as to promote the healthy development of China's housing market and population.Combing the literature at home and abroad,it is found that the influence of foreign scholars on the change of population factors and housing demand is earlier than that of domestic scholars.In general,the domestic and foreign research mainly involves the population age structure,family structure and the structure of urban and rural areas,the majority of scholars believe that the age structure of the population in the child dependency ratio decreased with increasing demand for housing will bring;aging increase will bring increased demand for housing;the reduction of family size and urbanization promotion has positive effect on housing demand.However,at present,to study the effect of housing demand factors from the very birth policy of and Research on qualitative demographic factors and the real estate market demand analysis less quantitative analysis,and most of the limitations of relevant demographic factors and changes in individual housing market demand,especially the majority of research on age structure and real estate the market demand,and the lack of research on demographic factors and comprehensive system and the real estate market demand.In this paper,on the basis of domestic and foreign literature,the fertility policy of stage segments,from the open degree of fertility policy("one-child policy" double alone two child policy:two separate child policy-"two children" policy)theoretical analysis of the relationship between changes of population and housing the demand,then use China provincial panel data to analyze the influence of population factors on housing demand,and the results of robustness test make the conclusion more reliable.On the basis of population structure prediction,the future housing demand is predicted.Finally,according to the results of empirical research and prediction,the conclusions of this paper are drawn and some relevant policy suggestions are put forward.In particular,the thesis is divided into five chapters.Chapter one:introduction.This chapter mainly introduces the research background of the paper,puts forward the research and research perspectives,and makes clear the theoretical and practical significance of the research.The research ideas,the research framework and the basic contents of the research are put forward,and the main research methods are introduced.Finally,it points out the possible innovation of this article.The second chapter:literature review.First,introduces the related concepts of the research contents of this paper;secondly,reviews the literature related to changes in population policy and population factors from two aspects at home and abroad;then reviews the relevant literature on the effects of population factors on housing demand,and the existing literatures were summarized and reviewed.Finally,the influence of the demographic change on housing demand caused by the birth policy is analyzed theoretically,and the theoretical logic of this paper is formed.The third chapter:the theoretical analysis of the influence of the change of the birth policy on the housing demand in China.First of all,based on the birth policy,we introduced the trend of China's population in recent years at different stages of fertility policy,and then qualitatively analyzed the influence mechanism of each stage on housing demand,and set up the hypothesis of this paper.The fourth chapter:the empirical study on the impact of the change of Chinese Fertility Policy on housing demand.This chapter mainly uses the Chinese provincial panel data,theoretical model with the effect of demographic changes on housing demand,the Chinese population and housing demand by empirical analysis,from the total regression and three stage regression analysis of different fertility policy under the influence of demographic changes on housing demand,and carries on the forecast to 7 in the implementation of "comprehensive two child policy.The fifth chapter:conclusions and policy recommendations.According to the empirical conclusions drawn from the fourth chapter,we conclude that the birth policy has a greater impact on housing demand and changes with the birth policy,including age structure,family structure and urbanization.Combined with the conclusions of the study,some relevant policies and suggestions are put forward,such as the development of”silver hair industry",continuing to liberalize and encourage fertility,and improve the urbanization and so on.The above five chapters include the research foundation,the influence mechanism,the empirical investigation and the conclusion strategy.Each part is closely related to each other and has a close logical relationship.The research innovation of the thesis is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:first,the innovation of the research method.In the past,the influence of demographic factors on housing demand is usually theoretically analyzed,or the use of time series data and panel data are relatively few.This paper not only theoretically analyzes the impact of demographic factors on housing demand,but also examines the impact of demographic factors on housing demand based on panel data,and examines it in stages according to the change of fertility policy.The two is the innovation of the research perspective.From the perspective of fertility policy,this paper analyzes from two angles:population size and structure.Previous studies of population factors mainly involve age structure,family structure,or urban-rural structure.The influence on the housing demand of this article from the general content of demographic factors--the size of the population,the natural population structure,social structure,regional structure,involving many aspects of population age structure,family structure,education structure,urban and rural structure,broaden the research scope of the past.The three is the innovation of the research content.The two child policy policy from the beginning of 2011,in recent years the release,and the hot topic is closely linked with the cross section data from 2005 to 2015 of coverage of the family planning policy from "family planning" and "double alone two children-two separate child-"comprehensive two children "to let go the time node,and the change of population factors under the new policy of the housing demand of the qualitative analysis of the prospect.