Analysis Of Oasis Urbanization Mechanism Based On The Complex System Theory

Oasis towns are the core of human life and production in the arid region ofnorthwest China, which are the most concentrated zones of human activity and themost sensitive place on man-earth relationship. Over the past few decades, aconsiderable number of studies have been conducted on oasis urbanization. However,very few attempts have been made at the origin, process and mechanism of oasisurbanization and little attention has been given to the oasis urbanization theorysystematically, because most of the studies just paid attention to the phenomenondescription and experience summary. Furthermore, with the gradual transformation ofChina’s social and economic system and the new-type urbanization, the constructionof the oasis urbanization need to explore a path with a correct theoretical guidancebadly. The complex system theory, with its comprehensive, interdisciplinary and theuniversality of methodology, provides new analysis ideas and methods to study thecomplex process of oasis urbanization.Based on the above, this paper imported the related theory of complex systems inthe study of the emergence, evolution and phase transformation of oasis urbanization.Firstly, we defined the connotation of urbanization system and established itsconceptual model. Secondly, the evolving characteristics-opening, self-organization,fluctuation, feedback, nonlinearity, instability and domination-of the oasisurbanization system were summarized based on the complex system theory in detail.Thirdly, by drawing from the ideas of emergence, synergy and the ball-basin model etal, this paper established an explanatory framework of the oasis urbanizationcomplexity from three dimensions of the emerging generation, coordinated sustenance,critical phase transition innovatively, and reinterpreted the Northam Curve based thisframework.On the basis of this theoretical framework and synergetics and dissipativestructure theory, this study developed self-organizing evolution simulation of the oasisurbanization system applying order parameter criteria and entropy criteria, andestablished the evolution coordination degree μiand order degree Rs of the oasisurbanization system and subsystem. Thus, the general recognition model of oasisurbanization evolvement was built. Through analyzing all kinds of internal feedback loop between the variables in the oasis urbanization system, the partial differentialequation was established and the model parameters were determined. Then weconstructed the system dynamics model of the oasis urbanization, and to simulate andpredict we set four modes, which were conventional development type, populationpolicy adjustment, industrial policy adjustment and the different allocation of waterresources.In this paper, Wuwei oasis was studied as a case, and the analysis results showthat:①There were different forms of volatility of the urbanization subsystem ofWuwei oasis except economy and water resources subsystem in2001-2010.②Inrecent years, Wuwei oasis urbanization system trended more orderly and stable yearby year, however, the system did not achieve self-organization critical state. In otherwords, the space for urbanization system improvement is big in a large part.③If theurbanization system develops as conventional development type, the urbanization rateof Liangzhou will reach70%in the middle of the21st century, and the speed will befaster before2030.④The population policy and the change of the second and thirdindustry growth rate both have large influences on urbanization rate. In the scene ofthe water stress type, the urbanization speed will slow down markedly.⑤Thedevelopment of the oasis urbanization should establish the self-organizationdevelopment view and holistic system view, attach great importance to the feedbackloop in complex systems, and insist on diversified urbanization development.