Study On The Optimization Of Industrial Structure With The Restriction Of Low Carbon In Northeast China

Northeast area is a traditional old industrial base in China, and its economy has maintained rapid growth in recent years. The average annual growth rate of GDP is always higher than10%. However, Northeast region’s industrial structure is dominated by heavy industry and its economic development is extensive. That makes increasing energy pressure and environment pressure for Northeast region. Especially era requirement is becoming the energy conservation and emission reduction. And it forces Northeast region to adjust the economic structure, especially to optimize the industrial structure.This paper establishes a multi-objective input-output optimization model based on the2007Northeast China Input-Output Table. It also works out the economic growth potential and industrial structure optimization potential of all the industrial sectors under the restriction of double intensity. Based on the empirical results, the paper draws main conclusions as follows:(1) In order to meet the dual objectives of economic growth and low-carbon, the development of various industries needs to have a big gap. So there is a large gap between the current structure and the optimal industrial structure for Northeast region. But, according to the simulated results, it is expected to overfulfil the economic growth target and carbon target in2020;(2) Industrial structure optimization potential is not only relate to the rate of reduction of carbon emission, but also to the contribution to economic growth.That some industries with higher coefficients of carbon emission show a greater adjustment potential under the premise of high economic growth target;(3)Optimization of industrial structure in Northeast China should emerge a tendency to the ingeneration. Tertiary Industry and high-tech industries in the secondary industry, including Transportation Equipment Manufacturings Manufacture of Measuring Instruments and Machinery for Cultural Activity and Office Work> Manufacture of Artwork and Other Manufacturing and so on.The context is organized as follows:The first part is an introduction, which describes the background and significance, summarizes and sorts out the existing domestic and international related research, and defines research direction of this study, then introduces the main contents and research methods used in this paper.The second part is the theoretical foundation and model. The main theories about the Input-Output Model, Optimization theory and the theory of multi-objective programming were studied in detail and summary. And multi-objective input-output optimization model were established.The third part is empirical analysis. On the basis of the model established in the second part, the constraint conditions are given according to the level of economic development and low-carbon of Northeast area. Then use Excel to obtain the optimal solution which meets the above conditions, the optimal output, the development pace of each industry, and industrial structure optimization potential.The fourth part summarizes the main conclusions according to the simulation results, and proposes some effective policy recommendations about the industrial structure optimization of Northeast China.