Research On Real Estate Investment Risk Assessment In Pre-construction Stage Based On RS-BPNN

As one of the foundation industry to national economy and the people’s livelihood,the real estate industry has the characteristics of long construction time, large amount ofinvestment, higher return, more influence factors, involving a wide range of industrialchain, which determine the complexity and risk in the real estate investment process.Real estate risk is an objective reality, which exists in the whole stage of real estatedevelopment process, but for the early stage it owns more unknown factors, whichimpact on the entire investment process up to90%. However, real estate developers paidso much attention on the project’s types and benefits that ignored the importance of thereal estate risk in early stage, only after problems appeared the developers tookmeasures to make up and save the loss, but the loss had raised the damage and risk, oreven caused the entire development project failure. Therefore, studying on investmentrisk assessment of pre-investment real estate projects in intensified competition marketcan prevent and reduce investment risk and improve economic efficiency of the realestate business has important theoretical and practical significance.The major research work is as below: Firstly, this thesis expounds the developmentof China’s real estate industry at present and the problems that exist in the early stageinvestment process. Secondly, this thesis elaborates the real estate investment risk,BPNN and RS theory; On basis of these theories, this thesis analyzes and classifies therisk of real estate project in early stage, then constructs the investment risk evaluationindex system of the project and establishes the RS-BPNN real estate investment riskevaluation model; Finally, the thesis verifies the model with XX real estate project inShi Jiazhuang, and the outcome shows that the model is available, effective in realestate investment risk evaluation.