| Public rental housing(referred to as the "public housing") has been considered as the main component of China’s housing security system. To approach the housing problems of middle-low income community, the construction of the public rental housing should be actively developed. Chongqing has been in the forefront of public rental housing construction scale in a nationwide, the total planned investment of construction project is expected to exceed twenty billion. However, the consequential huge funds for the construction of public rental housing, has become a problem of the government from financial pressure. Resulting in the contradiction between the increasingly prominent, which formed a major construction problem of public rental sustainable development in China. Based on the background of this situation, it is the introduction of social capital into public rental housing construction field through the adoption of the new investment and financing mode, such as PPP mode, BOT mode and BT mode, which can effectively alleviate the shortage of funds for construction of public rental housing to a great extent, to attain the sustainable development of the construction of public rental housing. Compared with other modes of financing, the rapid rise and development of BT mode in the construction of China’s public infrastruc ture, has aroused extensive concern at the same time, Chongqing, as well as some other city, has also tried to apply the BT model to the construction of public rental housing.However, the short of application in the construction of our country, as well as the lack of the lack of experience and relevant laws and regulations of BT project, has lead to the the non-standard manipulation in the actual operational process, which will affect t he uncertain risk of BT project in the process of construction. As a result, the investment of BT project must be end of failure, as well as some other cituy, has also tried to apply the BT model to the construction of public tental housing. In this paper,we analyzed the investment risk of BT project and researched the control of investment risk. At the same time, we identified and estimated the investment risk of BT project by the way of system dynamics, evaluated the factors of investment risk of BT project during the project construction. And we conducted simulation about the investment risk of BT project with the method of system dynamics software.This paper researched the identification, evaluation and estimation about the factors of investment risk of BT project from the BT project owner’s perspective in thecontext of the sustainable construction of China’s public rental housing. Firstly, we summarized the characteristic of BT investment project as well as analyzed the factors of BT project investment risk; Secondly, we explained the basic theory of system dynamics and the feasibility of the application of system dynamics method based on the method of system dynamics; then, we analyzed the factors of investment risk of BT project, built the system dynamics model of BT project investment risk identification and estimation, as well as conducted the simulation of investment risk control of BT project by means of the Vensim PLE software platform. Finally, we put forward the strategies and suggestions for investment risk control of BT project through the simulation results. |
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