Research Of Passenger Transport Structure Optimization In Beijing Under Carbon Perspective

At present, Beijing’s urban transportation is in a stage of rapid development. By the end of2013, Beijing’s motor vehicle ownership has reached5.44million, and the number is still growing by more than5percent per year. The rapid growth of motor vehicle ownership posed serious challenges to the environment, further increases in greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution is getting worse, our city is facing the dual pressures of energy crisis and environmental deterioration. The construction of low-carbon transport systems has a very important significance both from perspective of low-carbon transport and sustainable development and view of energy conservation and environmental protection.Based on the research from home and abroad, this paper finds the appropriate calculation method for Beijing’s passenger transport carbon emissions by analyzing the structure of Beijing passenger traffic. Through the analysis for the affecting factors of Beijing’s passenger transport carbon emissions, this paper established passenger traffic structure optimization model based on low-carbon to explore passenger transportation structure configuration for Beijing at different levels of carbon emissions. On the basis of research on the main line, the article studies the following three aspects:Firstly, Beijing passenger transport carbon emissions were calculated. On the basis of the analysis for passenger traffic structure in Beijing, calculate the transportation carbon emissions by mileage-based approach. Take the time series models of BP neural network to predict the missing values of the required parameters to ensure the accuracy of the model parameters, and the calculation results of the final carbon emissions verified.Secondly, this paper uses the method of literature analysis to study the factors of Beijing passenger transport carbon emissions. This paper uses scoring method for literature to analyses influencing factors then determines the impact factor by scoring, and analysis the applicability of these indicators in Beijing. Lastly, the affecting factors are shown by a new method-Words cloud.Finally, passenger transport structure optimization model established based on low-carbon. For the five representative passenger transportations--public buses, subway, passenger taxis, private cars and bicycles, take largest passenger turnover and smallest carbon emissions as the optimization goal and affecting factors of passenger transport carbon emissions as constraints, to construct optimization model of urban passenger transport under low carbon targets and analyzed at different levels of carbon emissions, optimal configuration of Beijing passenger traffic structure.