Study And Application Of Risk Identification And Evaluation On Production Rate Readiness Of XX Aviation Subcontract Programs

As boosted by the high speed development of social economy and technology, the global market for commercial aircrafts is experiencing a rapid growth. Among the risks associated with the process of sub-contract program in aeronautic industry, whether can accurately evaluate the manufacturing and ramp up capability is critical part of sub-contract program management. The important part of risk management on Aeronautic sub-contract programs is the Production Rate Analysis Management.This article implements an entire risk analysis and research on Risk Management of Production Rate Analysis. It focuses on risk evaluation of Aeronautic sub-contract program Production Rate Analysis. Combining the industry features and situation of Rate Analysis, based on risk evaluation theory and methodology, considering the uncertainty, diversity and fuzziness of analysis, applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP), Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation(FCE), writer established the model of AHP-FCE, utilized it in the analysis of Aviation sub-contract program and proved the model applicability with samples.This article applied qualitative and quantity analysis on Aviation sub-contract program with AHP-FCE model. Analysis provides relatively accurate and correct information for risk corresponding strategy. The model also proved the effectiveness of risk corresponding actions. Solid evidence illustrates the rationality and validity of AHP-FCE model in risk management of Aviation sub-contract programs Production Rate Analysis. AHP-FCE model sets up systematic qualitative and quantitative scoring criteria and strengthen the risk management on Aviation sub-contract program.