The Research On The Real Estate Market In Chongqing City Based On Disequilibrium Theory

In the development of national economy, the real estate industry is highly related with the upstream and downstream industries, it always leads and guides the development of other industries to a certain extent. In recent years, the real estate industry is playing more and more important role in the social and economic development. On the one hand, it can promote the development of construction, materials and financial services sector, increasing the total social production; on the other hand, it provides living housing for the people and safeguard its people. Therefore, from the point of view of sustainable development, for the significant improvement of people’s living standards and quality of living, for the purpose of stable social and economic development aswell, to ensure the real estate industry to be healthy and stable is of great significance.Based on the theory of economics, as opposed to the concept of equilibrium, the disequilibrium is not only closer to real life, but also the normal behavior. At present, the development of the real estate market has many problems, for example, the total amount of real estate market effective supply and demand is not equal; the structural contradiction is outstanding; the prices are higher; An in-depth study on these issues is becoming a pressing matter of the moment.Located in central and western China, since becoming the municipality, after nearly two decades of development, Chongqing has gradually become an important city in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, the economic status of the city is outstanding. Currently, how the overall development situation of Chongqing City real estate market is, whether the existence of the real estate market is under equilibrium conditions is worth studying. At present, the literature researches on disequilibrium of real estate market of Chongqing city is little. Based on the theory of disequilibrium and disequilibrium econometric model, This paper analyzes the influence factors of the real estate market supply and demand. Combined with Chongqing City present real estate development situation and from total supply and demand disequilibrium, structure disequilibrium, price disequilibrium these three aspects, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the disequilibrium of real estate in Chongqing city. In the total supply and demand disequilibrium, united with the relevant statistical data of 2002-2013 years of Chongqing city commercial housing, this text establishes the disequilibrium econometric model to analysis the correlation of the GDP, commercial housing prices, real estate investment, commercial housing sales and areas, domicile population as well. Moreover, this text introduces the disequilibrium degree index and regulatory vigilance line to analysis and appraisal Chongqing City real estate market development phase; The structure disequilibrium mainly discusses the supply and demand disequilibrium on the commercial residential housing and other commercial buildings; in terms of price disequilibrium, this paper applies both the price earnings ratio and monthly payments and monthly house hold disposable income these two indicators rates to explore the relationship between house prices and the purchasing power of the residents.The research results shows that there exists insufficient effective supply and excess demand in the Chongqing City real estate market; in addition, the indemnificatory housing containing affordable housing is under supply; the new building and the secondary housing market is uncoordinated; the housing prices is higher compared to the per capita disposable income. To sum up the above analysis results, to ensure the orderly and long last development of the real estate market of Chongqing City, this article finally puts forward some relevant countermeasures from the aggregate supply and demand, price controls and structure adjustment three aspects.