Research In The Balance Of Supply And Demand In Shanghai FTZ Logistics System

The negative list management mode, the customs regulation of "outside the customs and within the boundary" and a series of convenient policies in order to promote trade transformation, upgrade the shipping service and reform the financial system in Shanghai FTZ will lead to the increase of the logistics demand. So it is necessary to research that whether or not the logistics supply capacity of Shanghai FTZ can fulfill the increasing logistics demand and how to promote the balance between the logistics demand and supply in Shanghai FTZ. This paper takes Shanghai FTZ logistics system as the research object, aims to building the simulation model by using the method of System Dynamics. And provide the optimization program to promote the balance between the logistics demand and supply of Shanghai FTZ logistics system based on the simulation results. This paper mainly includes the following content:First of all, this paper constructs the Shanghai FTZ logistics system and analyses its constituent elements. After defining the logistics demand and supply of the Shanghai FTZ logistics system, this paper divides the balance of logistics demand and supply of Shanghai FTZ into quantity balance and structure balance. This will provide the basis for the model building and optimization.Second, based on the analysis of the causal relationship between the elements of Shanghai FTZ logistics system, this paper draws the casual loops diagram and constructs the SD model that based on the balance of demand and supply by using Vensim software. This paper determines the parameters and equations of the SD model of Shanghai FTZ logistics system then checks and proves its effectiveness.Finally, this paper simulates and predicts the SD model of Shanghai FTZ logistics system. According to the simulation results, this paper analyzes the balance of logistics demand and supply from quantity balance and structure balance. In the aspect of logistics quantity balance of supply and demand, by adjusting the parameters related to logistics demand and supply and comparing the logistics demand and supply of the system between the parameters change before and after, it is concluded that Shanghai FTZ logistics system needs to increase logistics investment and improve logistics efficiency in order to realize the quantity balance. In the aspect of logistics structure balance of supply and demand, by comparing the supply and demand structure of general cargo trade, commoditiy trading, transactional e-commerce and High-end manufacturing industry, this paper adjust the logistics investment proportion, logistics personnel proportion and logistics enterprise proportion in order to realize the structure balance.