| In the process of urbanization, the traditional agricultural society which has a large agricultural population is changing toward a modern civilized one with a big number of non-agricultural population. Promoting urbanization is helpful for building moderately prosperous society, maintaining a sustainable and healthy economic and social development and accelerating the construction of socialist modernization. The development of urbanization would promote the change of urban and rural economic structure and is the fundamental way to balance their development. Because of the higher income, most rural labors would like to transfer to towns to engage in secondary and tertiary industries and as a result, they have achieved an area conversion and a career change. Urbanization has broken the monopoly of the resources, making free-flowing possible for labors, capital and technology, which is positive for optimizing the allocation of resources and promoting the development of rural economy.China is in the stage of rapid development of urbanization. By 2015, urban population reached 0.77 billion with the urbanization rate of 56.1%. The development of urbanization would promote the change of urban and rural economic structure and is the fundamental way to balance their development. The process of urbanization is also the one for rural labor transfer. Thus scientific guidance of labor transfer is helpful for optimizing the allocation of resources and improve agricultural economy.The household registration system in China has been loosened, from strictly controlling the flow of the population to promoting rural populations to settle down in towns. At the same time, the status of labor transfer is closely connected with the change of household registration policies. Theoretically speaking, labor transfer helps to optimize agricultural resources, improve agricultural production conditions, optimize the structure of agricultural production and increase farmers’ income.This paper studies the evolutions of household registration policies and the process of rural labor transfer and analyzed its effect on agricultural production conditions, output, structure and farmers’ income. Then the paper constructs CGE model and social accounting matrix based on the statistics from IO tables of 2007 and 2010. By referring to the direction of change of household registration system, the paper designs two policy scenarios and made comparisons between the two results. According to the simulation results, from 2021 to 2025, the annual increasing rate of output value of farming would be 4.46% and 5.26%, and for animal husbandry 4.93% and 5.85%, and both forestry and agricultural service would grow fast. Apart from bean crop, the output of other agricultural sectors will increase. On the aspect of trade, the export of agricultural products will rise at a smaller rate. The import amount of corn, beans and cotton will grow.Based on the effects of urbanization, household registration policies and labor transfer on agriculture production, the paper makes the following policy recommendations. We should continue to promote the reform of the household registration system and accelerate the household population urbanization. We should also put emphasis on improving the participation of rural transfer population in the construction of cities and strengthen their life, education, housing and medical security. The employment rate and human capital level of transferred rural labors should be improved and employment absorption, wage payment security mechanism should be established. The government should improve the farmer training system, the professional skills of training personnel and increase investment in rural education. We should develop modern agriculture and improve the capability of science and technology innovation such as Internet plus Modern Agriculture. The land property right system reform should be promoted and primary, secondary and tertiary industry should be deeply integrated. |
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