Influence Of Promoting Rural Labor Transfer On Regional Economy Under The New Urbanization

Since the reform and opening of China, massive transfer of labor force has been a significant driving force to the economic and social development, and given an indelible contribution to national urbanization development. Urbanization is the only way to gain industrialization and modernization of China, and also the important way to resolve issues concerning agriculture, countryside and farmers. The urbanization to develop in China will be a people-oriented new style, which is aimed at improvement of urbanization quality and realize the conversion from farmer to citizen by transferring rural population to urban. The transfer of rural labor is the prerequisite of rural population transfer. And the transfer of rural labor is turning complicated and confused which is affected various factors in the proceeding of new urbanization. In this context, the issues such as what new changes of labor transfer will arise, what kind of effect on region economic will be produced, and how is the influence degree should be worthy of attention.To answer the questions above, this paper took Chongqing for example, and constructed a Two-region CGE Model of China based on a social accounting matrix of Chongqing and other regions of China which is programmed with the input-output table and other statistical data in 2007. Then this paper set various simulation scenarios of policies combining with main factors effecting labor transfer under new urbanization —— agricultural technical progress, the citizenization of rural migrant workers, boosting for service development, simulated and analyzed the changes of labor transfer and the influence on the region economic under various policy scenarios by using the CGE Model, including the influence on the amount of labor transfer, the salary of different kinds of labor and the employment structure, macro-economic indicators of Chongqing, the income, consumption and welfare of urban and rural residents. So, the conclusion can be made based on the simulation results:The “push” to promote labor transfer caused by agrotechnical progress is limited without the cooperation of relevant labor transfer policies, and may cause the decrease of average wages in agriculture. In contrast, the economic effects by the improving supporting policies for rural labor transfer are relatively better during agricultural technical progress which will have positive influence on promoting rural labor transfer, optimizing employment structure, promoting economic growth of Chongqing, narrowing the gap between urban and rural residents.The implement of policies for civilized rural migrant workers increases the real GDP and per capita GDP of Chongqing, and generates positive promoting effects on labor transfer, service development, enlarging region consumption, and narrowing the gap between urban and rural residents. But the expansion of urban population will not only reduce the welfare of urban residents, but also generate a “crowding out effect” to transferred labor. The increase of government consumption expenditure may be good for relief this “crowding out effect”, but also will generate inhibition to the economic growth.The preferential tax policy promotes the development of service and the proportion of service increased in the industrial structure. The development of service promotes the rural labor transfer, and is good for improving the welfare for urban and rural residents during the labor transfer. But the decrease of government tax revenue may depress the promotion on economic growth by labor transfer.The compositive policy effect generated by agrotechnical progress, civilized rural migrant workers and boosting for service development works better than which generated by each single one. Compared with the single policy, the compositive policy generates a greater promotion to the boosting of economic growth, accelerating the industrial structure adjustment, narrowing the gap between urban and rural residents, and expansion of domestic demand. The economic growth of Chongqing is a kind of consumption-driven under the influence of the compositive policy.