Research On Energy Demand Forecasting And Energy Structure Optimization Of China

Energy is the important material basis for economic growth and social development. As energy is used bringing a revolutionary change in human society, every major human civilization and progress are accompanied by improvements in energy and replacement. Meanwhile, the development and utilization of energy also changed the natural environment for human survival, environmental destruction, climate change, resource depletion have brought great challenges for the human development. In recent years, the level of economic development of the country and the region is gradualy restricted by the energy supply system, thus adhering to long-term and efficient energy sustainable development strategy has become an important part of the future development plans of each country. However, with the utilization of mass exploitation of energy resources, the continued growth of total energy consumption caused environmental pollution problems increasingly prominent, as well as the resource and environmental constraints on the energy system more powerful, which has become a constraint for social development important core issues.The future, as economic sociaty sustainable develops, energy demand grows, the international energy situation and climate change issues being more complex, various constraints and contradictions should be faced by the government, and pressure of energy security would also be growing. Therefore, a reasonable accurate predictions of energy demand, and optimization of energy consumption structure, could enhance energy efficiency, improve the energy consumption structure, promote the construction of China’s Energy Internet strategy and ensure the sustainable development of energy resources. The paper first analyzes the overall situation of China’s energy supply and demand, coal, oil, natural gas and other types of energy supply and demand situation, has obtained the overall energy balance analysis of supply and demand situation, and the various types of energy’s supply and demand situation. Second, based on gray prediction model and Markov transition equation, the prediction model is optimized to build Unbiased Gray Markov model, and the energy demand is calculated on. Third, the energy demand structure optimization model is built to optimize the structure of energy demand by the targeted genetic algorithm model. Finally, appropriate policy under different scenarios of technical, policy and market are given according to the prediction and optimization results, to provide recommendations with a view to optimize the development of China’s energy consumption.