Regional Tourism Risk Evaluation Based On Unascertained Measurement

With the perspective of development, theory and model research are important for tourism risk evaluation. They may make great significance to further improve the theoretical system of tourist destination management, improve management of tourism activities and guarantee scientific operation of tourism activities and sustainable development of tourism destinations.In this paper, Frequency Analysis, unascertained measure, comparative analysis and other methods were used, combining with field research and expert consulting. It established an index system of regional tourism risk factors identification of 42 risk factors from six aspects of tourism sudden crisis, tourism economic risks, tourism ecological risks, tourism cultural risks, tourism social risks and tourism security risks. It constructed a tourism risk dangerousness evaluation model considering both risk possibility and risk perniciousness. It also established an tourism emergency management capability evaluation index system of 10 second-class indicators from protection and monitoring capability, emergency response capability and handling capability. And it constructed a tourism emergency management capability evaluation model considering both the degree of importance and the actual performance capability of each indicator.Then use the established index system and model to comprehensive evaluate the risk and the emergency management capability of enshi autonomous prefecture tourism. The results show that: in the six categories of tourism risks faced in Enshi Autonomous Prefecture, the highest degree of danger is the economic risk of tourism, followed by the cultural risk of tourism. In the 42 risk factors, natural disasters, long-term benefits damage caused by the tourism development strategic mistakes and blind tourism development, commercialization and authenticity loss of ethic culture caused by tourism, traffic and population congestion caused by tourism, etc. are the risk factors of highest danger level for Enshi Autonomous Prefecture. And also shows that tourism emergency management capability of Enshi’s comprehensive evaluation value is 3.670, which is between “general” to “strong” level. The highest degree of importance is emergency response capability in the 3 first-class indicators, followed by protection and monitoring capability, handling capability. In the 10 second-class indicators, the degree of importance of emergency and guarantee capability, emergency and rescue capability were higher than others. Judging from the actual performance capability, the evaluation values of all 10 second-class indicators are between 3 and 4, which shows that tourism emergency management capability is still much room for improvement in Enshi. Especially to the emergency and guarantee capability, which is the highest degree of importance and the actual performance capability is relatively lower.Based on the evaluated results, the paper presented tourism risk management strategies and tourism emergency management capability promotion strategies for Enshi Prefecture. There are 5 tourism risk management strategies putting forward for Enshi Prefecture:(1) Plan Scientific and develop orderly, to ensure the sustainable development of tourism;(2) Deepen cultural identity and maintaining normal folk, to ensure the inheritance of ethnic culture;(3) Speed up tourism infrastructure construction and improve the tourism safety management system;(4) Provide employment opportunities and consider the convenience of local, to enhance resident well-being;(5) Develop eco-tourism environmental planning and strengthen education.There are 6 tourism emergency management capability promotion strategies putting forward for Enshi Prefecture:(1) Improve tourism risk early warning system, improve emergency response initiative;(2) Construct tourism risk emergency plan system, improve emergency plans relevance;(3)Strengthen interaction between the relevant organizations, improve emergency emergency rescue command and decision-making efficiency;(4) Strengthen the capacity of dealing with the aftermath, timely improve the scenic repair and reconstruction;(5) Local conditions to create distinctive tourism emergency management;(6) Raise public awareness of disaster prevention and self-help tourists.The value of this paper is mainly reflected in:(1) It systematic identified the regional tourism risk factors, enriching theories of tourism risk;(2) It innovated tourism risk assessment methods by the combination of evaluating tourism risk management subjects and objects;(3) The use of unascertained measure theory makes regional tourism risk evaluation results more accurate;(4) It provided theoretical guidance for tourism risk management of the case area, which would promote the sustainable development of ethic regions’ tourism industry, and even the ecology, economy and society.