| With the growing of the aging population,it has gradually become an important factor which affects the development of C hina's economy.The rapid increase in the number of elderly population as well as the expansion of consumption needs have greatly accelerated the development of pension industry,therefore,pension industry has a great potential.The development and expansion of pension industry,as a service-oriented industry,not only can serve the elderly population better,but also can form a new economic growth point to boost the transition of China's economy.Hence,the following issues have become the focus of scholars in China: How to estimate the potential of regional pension industry in a reasonable scale? What are the characteristics and the future trend of it? How to better exert it to promote the development of pension industry? The total population of the elderly population in Shandong Province stands in the forefront of a larger demand for pension industry,hence its earlier development presents as a typical case.In this paper,it conducts its research in Shandong Province,estimating the potential of the pension industry and analyzing the spatial and temporal patterns of the pension industry there.The purpose is to put forward the optimization strategy of pension industry in Shandong Province based on its actual situation,providing a scientific basis of active response to the aging population and the healthy development of economy.This paper is divided into six parts:The first part is introduction.It expounds the research background and the significance of the potential of the pension industry in Shandong Province,clarifies the domestic and foreign reviews of the pension industry as well as summarizes the research ideas,research methods and research contents of the paper.The second part is the theoretical basis of the thesis.First of all,it defines and analyzes the relevant concepts concerning the aging population,pension industry,the potential of the pension industry.Next,it displays the theoretical basis of the potential of the pension industry,including the economic aging population theory,life cycle theory,hierarchy of needs theory,etc.The third part consists of the analysis of the present situation of the pension industry in Shandong Province.O n the basis of clarifying the process of the development of pension industry in Shandong Province,firstly,using the statistical data of 2004-2015 years' old age work,this paper mainly analyzes the virious kinds of pension industry.And this part mainly analyzes the present situation of the pension service industry in Shandong from the two aspects which are the pension service providers and the pension service practitioners.The analysis shows that the pension service industry in Shandong province is gradually paid more attention by society,government,schools and training institutions,and the development potential is great,but the difference between regions is great.Secondly,this paper analyzes the current development situation based on the statistical data from 1982 to 2015,using the demand subject,the income level of the demand subject,and the overall economic level and consumption level of Shandong Province from the perspective of supply and demand.The analysis shows that the overall development of the pension industry in Shandong Province has a better development foundation and a great potential for further development,yet there are some differences from region to region.The fourth part analyzes the trend of the potential of the pension industry in timeline in Shandong Province.Based on the gray forecasting model and the linear regression model,it predicts the population and per capita disposable income of Shandong Province in 2016-2030.Then,it constructs the calculation model of the potential of pension industry,analyzing the trend of the pension industry in Shandong Provinceand in timeline by using the number of aging population,per capita disposable income and the consumption tendency of the elderly.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Compared with 2016,the number of the elder population in Shandong Province will increase by 6.3 times in 2030,and it is huge.(2)Compared with 2016,the per capita disposable income of Shandong Province will increase by 1.3 times in 2030,and the income level will increase significantly.(3)In a medium and long term,the demand for pension in Shandong Province will be large and the pension industry has a great potential.(4)The urban pension industry has a greater potential than the rural areas according to rural-urban differences.(5)The trend of the potential of the pension industry in Shandong province is mainly affected by the large population and a high degree of aging of Shandong Province,the change of consumption concept of the elderly,the obvious gap between urban and rural,and the improvement of social security system,etc.The fifth part analyzes the change of spatial patterns of the potential of the pension industry in Shandong Province.Firstly,the evaluation index system of the potential of the pension industry in Shandong Province was constructed.Through the entropy evaluation method and the software ArcGIS,it analyzes the spatial and temporal patterns of the potential of the pension industry in Shandong Province from four aspects: the whole,coastal and inland,east and west,cities.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)O n the whole,the potential of the pension industry in Shandong Province is constantly converging to the high-value area and the low-value area,showing the growth of “the dumbbell-shaped type”.(2)The potential of the pension industry in the coastal area of Shandong Province is greater than that in the inland area.(3)From the view of differences between eastern and western places,the potential of the pension industry in Shandong Province is displayed in the ladder-like pattern: The potential of eastern part is greater than that of the central part in Shandong Province,and the potential of central part is greater that that of the western part.(4)From the view of the scale of the city,there is a big difference among cities in Shandong Province in the potential of pension industry: Yantai C ity,Q ingdao C ity,Dongying C ity,Weihai C ity and Weifang C ity and other cities have great potential while Laiwu City and Rizhao City have less potential.The sixth part is the study of the optimization strategy of the pension industry in Shandong province.Based on the current situation of the pension industry in Shandong Province,the spatial and temporal pattern of the pension industry,the paper puts forward the optimization strategy of the pension industry in Shandong Province in view of its actual situation.The strategy mainly includes narrowing the gap between urban and rural areas,the establishment of the elderly demand list,creation of a relaxed policy environment,improvement of the purchasing power of the elderly,and promotion of the healthy development of pension industry in a reasonable scale,etc. |
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