| The Senior Wave is coming,with a large number of single-child families successively entered the aging period,the situation of population aging in Liaoning becomes even more worse.From the perspective of socio-economy,population aging will bring about reduced consumption-savings,labor shortage,economic slowdown and many other problems.The study of Liaoning's population aging issues from a spatial perspective enriches the geographical significance of the research in this field.Based on the working period of census in China,this thesis selects 1990,2000 and 2010 as time nodes,then combining the census data and socio-economic data of Liaoning Province at county scale.Firstly,using entropy method to calculate the synthesis scores of population aging level in Liaoning county regions.Secondly,elaborating the temporal-spatial evolution characteristics of population aging in Liaoning according to the spatial autocorrelation.Lastly,using geographical weighted regression model to analyze the factors which influencing the population aging from four aspects— natural variaiton of population,economic development,medical treatment and public health and cultural education.The results shows that:Population aging in Liaoning has always been at high level.Both the degree of aging population and cofficient of older dependency ratio are consistently higher than the national overall level.In 2010,100 districts and counties in Liaoning are all entered the aging society.During the entire study period,population aging degree in Liaoning county regions has been constantly deepened and its speed tends to slow down.There are distinct spatial differences in the population aging level in Liaoning county regions,which mainly performed as regional differences,rural-urban differences and ethnic differences.The population aging level among county regions has an obvious spatial positive correlation,and the overall spatial agglomeration effect first intensified and then weakened.The hot spot of local spatial autocorrelation is mostly distributed in the surrounding county regions of Shenyang and Dalian,and the high value agglomeration effect is relatively weakened.The cold spot gradually forms a dual structure represented by Chaoyang-Huludao and Yingkou-Panjin,and the low value agglomeration effect is enhanced.Most regions of Liaoning are in an equilibrium distribution of relatively high level population aging state.Each influential factors has different impact on various regions which shows different positive and negative correlation,and appears spatial distribution differentiation with certain regularity.Among them,the mortality rate and the number of hospital beds per thousand people have a positive effect on the development of population aging in Liaoning county regions.The birthrate and the illiteracy rate play an inhibitory role in promoting it.However,at county scale,real GDP per capital's influence on the aging of population in Liaoning is not very remarkable.From 1990 to 2010,it mainly manifested in inhibitions first and then facilitation.According to the practical situation of population aging issues in Liaoning,this thesis adjusts measures to local conditions and then puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions from four aspects,which are actively implement the “two-child” policy throughout the province-wide,cubing the brain drain,enhancing and perfecting the social security system for the aged,and promoting the progress of pension industry. |
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