| In recent years,population aging has further intensified,which has a great impact on China’s socio-economic development;therefore,the aging issue has become one of the hot issues for research in demography and economics.In the past 40 years since the reform and opening up,the working-age population has been increasing and the total dependency ratio has been decreasing,and such a demographic structure has contributed greatly to economic growth in the past 40 years.However,the population born in the first "baby boom" of the new China entered the aging stage during the period,making China transition from the period of demographic dividend to the period of population aging.The working-age population is shrinking,the age structure tends to age,the burden of population aging increases,and the scale of empty nesters expands.With the less developed economy,population aging will bring more resistance to the socio-economic development of the southern border region,and will also cause greater impact on relatively fragile areas such as pension security and medical service systems.In addition,with the improvement of living standards and changes in lifestyles,the demand for elderly services will also increase dramatically,the development of the aging industry in the southern border area is relatively lagging behind,unable to meet the growing needs of the elderly,and the contradiction between the lagging development of the aging industry and the growing demand for elderly services is more prominent.However,the current understanding of population aging in South Xinjiang region is still shallow and the resource allocation is unbalanced.How to effectively respond to the impact brought by population aging,fully understand the regional characteristics and influencing factors of population aging in South Xinjiang region,plan and layout well in advance,achieve good socio-economic development and precise elderly services,optimize the allocation of elderly resources,It has important reference value and significance to achieve the long-term goal of active aging and solve the social problems of aging in less developed areas of China.In view of this,this paper takes the population aged 65 and above in South China as the main research object,and explores the current situation of its pattern,evolutionary trends and its influencing factors from the perspective of time and space.Firstly,we use the sixth population census data as the base year data and apply the PADIS-INT population forecasting software to forecast and analyze the population aging development trend in South Xinjiang from 2010 to 2030.Secondly,we combined the data from the Fourth Census,Fifth Census,Sixth Census and the forecast data,and used the coefficient of the elderly population,the ratio of the elderly to the young,the age concentration rate of the elderly,the burden coefficient of the elderly,the density of the elderly population,and the distribution center of gravity of the elderly population.A multi-indicator system was constructed to measure the degree,rate,spatial and temporal pattern of population aging and its evolution in the southern region,and the spatial autocorrelation of the elderly population coefficient was used to analyze the spatial and temporal correlation characteristics of population aging.Finally,by establishing a geographically weighted regression model,the relationships between influencing factors such as natural population change,economic and social development,culture and education,industrial structure and population structure composition and population aging coefficients are analyzed one by one to provide countermeasure suggestions for coping with the effects brought by population aging.The main research findings are summarized as follows.(1)The elderly population in South Xinjiang is growing rapidly,the degree of aging continues to deepen,and the annual growth rate of the elderly population is high.Among them,the annual growth rate of the elderly population gradually accelerated from 1990 to 2020,the fastest growth rate from 2010 to2020,and slightly declined from 2020 to 2030.Although it has declined,the growth rate is still in a fast state,and the population aging continues to deepen.(2)In terms of the degree of population aging,the northeastern part of South Xinjiang is the most serious,the central part is the second,and the southwestern part is a little lighter,and gradually advances to the southwestern part over time,and the degree of population aging in all counties tends to deepen;in terms of the rate of population aging,from 1990 to 2010,the population aging process in South Xinjiang as a whole shows a positive acceleration;from 2010 to 2030,there is a positive acceleration in the population aging process among counties.From 2010 to 2030,there are large differences among counties,among which,the aging process is fastest in the southwest,faster in the northeast,and relatively slow in the west,and the number of regions where the aging process exceeds the overall level is increasing and migrating from the east to the central and western regions;in terms of the elderly population dependency ratio,the elderly population dependency ratio is growing,and the burden of old-age care is increasing,with the southeast region growing faster than the southwest The southeastern region is growing faster than the southwestern region,and the development is uneven.The number of dependents per labor force population is increasing,which once again proves the increasing level of population aging in the counties of the southern border region.(3)In terms of the density of the elderly population,most of the counties in South Xinjiang region show an increasing trend of the density of the elderly population over time,with the high-density areas gradually increasing and the low-density areas gradually decreasing,while the density of the elderly population in the northern region is higher and the density of the elderly population in the southern region is smaller.From the perspective of population aging center of gravity migration,the deviation distance between the center of gravity and the geometric center of the elderly population in South Xinjiang region shows a trend of "shrink-widen" over time,which indicates that the distribution of the elderly population is uneven and there are certain differences among regions,and the spatial differences increase over time and the coordination degree decreases.From the perspective of population aging correlation pattern,there is a strong positive spatial correlation among the counties in the southern border area,and the spatial clustering is more obvious,and the degree of spatial differences is in a strong and weak crossover state.With the passage of time,the correlation type areas,mainly high and low value clustering areas,are formed and clustered in patches,showing the spatial characteristics of "high in the northeast and low in the southwest",and the clustering phenomenon has a tendency of continuous expansion,and the difference of aging degree among counties gradually increases.(4)The total share of secondary and tertiary industries in South Xinjiang is positively correlated with population aging,the years of education per capita is negatively correlated with it,the influence of birth rate,death rate and GDP per capita on population aging shows the effect of first pushing and then suppressing,the influence of the proportion of non-agricultural households on population aging shows the effect of first suppressing and then pushing,the influence of the proportion of minority population on population aging shows the effect of "suppressing-pushing-suppressing".The effect of "inhibit-push-inhibit" on population aging.Each factor has different degrees of influence on population aging in local areas.By2010,the minority population ratio has the most significant effect on the level of population aging in southern border counties,followed by mortality rate and years of education per capita.Combined with the actual situation in southern Xinjiang,this paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures from the aspects of actively dealing with population aging,slowing down the process of population aging and solving the problems caused by aging,that is,actively dealing with population aging,implementing more active fertility policy,optimizing the age structure of population,improving economic vitality and strengthening economic infrastructure in southern Xinjiang,and promoting the development of pension industry in southern Xinjiang.Improve the level of education and improve the quality of the labor force. |
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