Research On The Evolution And Driving Mechanism Of Population Aging In Guangdong Counties

It is generally believed that the better the economic development,the higher the aging coefficient,Guangdong Province is located in the southeast of China,as the forefront of China’s reform,for many years,Guangdong Province’s GDP ranks first in China,according to the development law of population aging,Guangdong Province should be the highest aging coefficient of China.However,the 7th census bulletin shows that the population aging coefficient of Guangdong Province is 8.58%,which is only higher than that of Xinjiang and Tibet.Based on the data of the fifth,sixth and seventh population censuses in Guangdong Province and 118 counties and districts in Guangdong Province,this paper analyzes the evolution of the spatial and temporal pattern of population aging in Guangdong Province by using standard deviation ellipse and spatial autocorrelation,and explores the driving mechanism of population aging in Guangdong Province by means of geographic detector and geographical weighted regression.The results show that:(1)The aging population of Guangdong Province is at a low level in China,and the development trend is stable.From 2000 to 2020,the spatial distribution of county population aging degree in Guangdong Province basically presents a semi-circular distribution,from south to north,from the center to the periphery,the aging degree is gradually deepening.From 2000 to 2020,the distribution pattern of the aging population has little change,but the regional difference is enhanced,and the difference of the aging extreme value increases significantly,resulting in the unbalanced state of the distribution of the elderly population.(2)From 2000 to 2020,the county population aging ellipse in Guangdong Province changed slightly in the direction of southwest to northeast,and the spatial distribution of the aging population first concentrated and then dispersed.The center of gravity of the aging population moves to the northwest and then to the southeast,but it always moving in Guangzhou.From 2000 to 2020,the spatial distribution of population aging at county level in Guangdong Province has a strong positive correlation,and the agglomeration trend first increases and then decreases.In the past21 years,the number of cold spots has increased steadily,with Dongguan City,Bao ’an District,Longgang District and other places as the center,expanding to the periphery.The number of hot spots increased first and then decreased.(3)There is a significant difference between the increase of population aging and the average annual growth rate in the past 21 years,and there is a strong spatial autocorrelation between the growth rate and the increase;The changes in the age structure of the county population in Guangdong Province are mainly slow moderate aging and slow shallow aging,and the aging process of the population in Guangdong Province is slow.In the future,the age structure of the county population in Guangdong Province will be mainly light aging and moderate aging,and the low aging value areas will still be located in the counties and districts under the jurisdiction of Guangzhou,Dongguan and Shenzhen.(4)Both demographic factors and socio-economic factors have a good explanatory power for county population aging in Guangdong Province in 2020.The natural population growth rate and the effect on aging are mainly negative.The average years of education and average life expectancy of 15 years and above have positive and negative effects on the aging in different regions,but the positive impact area is more than the negative impact area.The proportion of population separated from households has a negative effect on aging.In general,the evolution of spatial pattern of population aging in Guangdong Province is the result of cyclic feedback and interaction of many factors.(5)According to the development of population aging in Guangdong Province,countermeasures and suggestions for population aging are put forward.In order to make the population distribution of Guangdong Province balanced,we should establish the group-type economic development model,formulate the policy of attracting talents,and realize the diversion of labor force and population.Secondly,in order to deal with a series of pension problems caused by aging,we should develop the pension industry,promote the development of the aging economy,and improve the pension security system and supporting facilities for the elderly.Finally,in order to improve the age structure of the population in Guangdong Province,we should strengthen the policy of encouraging children to reduce the burden and worries of the family of childbearing age.