The Research On The Influential Factors Of Our Export Based On The Gravity Model

Since China began to reform and open up to the World, especially after accessing to the World Trade Organization, the amount of exports increases rapidly and have a great impetus to the national economy. In recent years, along with the increasingly multilateral international political and economic environment, China suffers more and more trade conflicts, political factors begins to affect the international trade. New government efforts to promote political and economic reform in the area. The causes of economic growth is export and investment now. Consumption must play a more important role in economic growth. On this complex and changeable condition, taking efforts to study the factors that influence Chinese export is good for the growth of our national economy.This paper includes six parts:firstly, by combining the current international and domestic political and economic environment, the research of domestic and foreign scholars on exports and gravity model is summarized; an overall understanding of the development status of the gravity equation and exports is given and exploring thought is also introduced in this paper. Secondly, it discusses the evolution history of the export theories and does some research on the five main trade theories and the theory of gravity model chronologically which laid a theoretical basis for this paper. Thirdly, on the basis of brief introduction of China's more than two thousand years development history of export trade, it reflects the importance of export in the past thirty years to China's economic progress by using of trade dependence and export dependence, and then studies the current export status of goods and services in China. Fourthly, combining the evolution of gravity equation theory of predecessors and the current economic environment in China, it selects seven variables such as economic aggregate of China's export countries, China's economic aggregate, the exchange rate, foreign direct investment, the distance between the export target countries and China, whether virtual variables have common borders and whether it's the member of Asia-pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC) in this paper to study the export trade gravity model of China's trade influence factors. Fifthly, it first introduces the data sources of the model and correlative processing and then takes relevant data of China's 25 leading export countries in 15 years from 1999 to 2013 as sample while the gravity equation as a tool to explore the random effects on China's export situation. It draws a conclusion that the variables such as economic aggregate of countries which buy goods from China, China's economic aggregate, the exchange rate, foreign direct investment, virtual variables and whether it's the member of APEC do have positive influence on China's export. The distance between the target countries and China becomes farther; the amount of exports becomes smaller. And the common border has no significant influence on export. Sixthly, aiming at the results of analyses in the part above, it puts forward some exports measures to keep steady growth next step.Under the transition condition of China's current economy development mode, the export is still the important dependent strength of economic growth. To increase the competitiveness of export, on the one hand, it should take measures to improve added value of products to enhance the international competitiveness from the perspective of supply. On the other hand, it should expand the scale of market demand and pay attention to the development of emerging markets while deepen the potential exploitation of traditional export market from the perspective of demand. In the current environment, to ensure the smooth and rapid growth of exports has an important role in promoting the development of China's economy in a sustained, healthy and rapid way in the future.