Research On Project Risk Management Of ? Shopping Mall Development

After 30 years of development, China's real estate industry has become a pillar industry of national economy. From 2010, the potency dimension of macroeconomic regulation to the real estate industry was intensified. Because residential real estate relate to people's livelihood, it subject to policy regulation and control. Compared with residential real estate, the regulation of commercial real estate is moderate, so the commercial real estate has become a new profit growth point of real estate corporations. Commercial real estate has the characteristics of high investment, high return and long investment cycle, so the development of commercial real estate needs to face higher risk. To the real estate corporations that transited to commercial real estate, the urgent problems need to solve are grasp the characteristics of commercial real estate, strengthen risk awareness and establish a complete risk management system.In the first part of the article, the writer simply summed up the recent development of China's commercial real estate market, described the importance of risk management to the commercial real estate project, listed the results of relevant studies on the risk management of commercial real estate, simply introduced the research methods and the main content of the article. At the end of this part, the writer introduced the I shopping mall development project of S real estate corporation, it's the research object of the article. At first, the writer briefly described the basic situation of S real estate corporation. Secondly, the writer introduced the I shopping mall project in position, business environment, market positioning plan,construction condition and development schedule.In the second part of the article, the writer explained the main process of project risk management, introduced the significance and main tasks of risk identification stage, risk assessment stage and risk control stage. After that the writer detailedly introduced the methods of risk identification and assessment that had been used in the article, includes Brain-storming Method, Delphi Method and Analytic Hierarchy Process. Then the writer summarized the advantage, disadvantage and application steps of the methods.In the third part of the article, the writer divided the development cycle of I project into four stages, they were investment decision stage, preparatory stage, construction stage and operation stage. Then the writer identified the risk of the four stages by using Brain-storming Method, combining the condition of I project. After that, the writer arranged and selected the risk factors ulteriorly bu using Delphi Method.In the fourth part of the article, the writer assessed the risk factors quantitatively by using Analytic Hierarchy Process, sorted the importance of the risk factors by considering the influence to the target of the project, judged the risk grades by considering the characteristic of I project. Then the writer suggested the control method for the consistence deviation caused by excessive factors in one hierarchy when using Analytic Hierarchy Process.In the fifth part of the article, the writer proposed the principle of formulating risk response plan. Then the writer formulated risk response plan considering the risk grades, the condition of I project and the improvable source of related projects. The plan also included alternative plans.In the sixth part of the article, the writer summarized the main point of the research, and discussed the prospects of the research.The research object of the article is I shopping mall development project, the writer explained the risk management process of commercial real estate combined by shopping mall and community service commercial building. It could referenced by other similar project.