The Evaluation Of Coordinated Development Of Four Modernizations In Zhejiang Province

The integration of industrialization,IT application,urbanization,and agricultural modernization was elevated to new heights in report to the eighteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China.They boost economic and social development jointly with mutual promotion and influence.Zhejiang Provincial Government attaches high importance to the issue of the integration as well,and at Zhejiang new urbanization work conference,Secretary Xia Baolong said that we must make overall plans and unified arrangements to promote the integration of industrialization,IT application,urbanization,and agricultural modernization.Meanwhile,the integration,as the strategic deployment of the transformation and upgrading of technology and industry,is an important way to build smart Zhejiang during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period of Zhejiang.Therefore,there is momentous theoretical value and practical significance to study the integration of Four Modernizations in Zhejiang province.First,corresponding theory model is extracted through the analysis of the relationship among industrialization,IT application,urbanization,and agricultural modernization.And then,evaluating indicator system is established,based on present situation of Zhejiang province and the foundation of integration;the initial index is refined based on feature selection method and 44 evaluating indicators are gotten.Last,evaluation and analysis of the integration is carried out with the use of indicator system,coefficient of variation,co-integration,VAR model and coordination degree.The result indicates: 1)the level of the development of industrialization,IT application,urbanization,and agricultural modernization is continuously rising in Zhejiang province,and industrialization and IT application catch up from behind in the leading position while there is a relatively small increase in the development of agricultural modernization;2)according to co-integration analysis,there is a co-integration equation that all of industrialization,IT application,urbanization,and agricultural modernization have positive effect and industrialization has the greatest effect,followed by IT application.3)according to the analysis of impulse response analysis,industrialization,IT application,urbanization,and agricultural modernization intercheck and interact,but their effects and directions are different.With the reference to the result of variance decomposition,they interrelate and support with each other,but agricultural modernization slightly affects itself or the other three,so it needs the impetus from the other three.4)in the light of the analysis of Euclidean distance coordination degree,the coordination degree between industrialization and IT application recently shows a downward trend,and that between IT application and agricultural modernization is the lowest with large fluctuations.5)through the analysis of the coordination degree of minimum coefficient of dispersion,as the elapse of time,the coordination degree of industrialization,IT application,urbanization,and agricultural modernization in Zhejiang evidently shows a upward trend.And with the coordination degree above0.85 until 2011,the composite system has entered the stage of the fine coordination.Finally,on the basis of the finding,the policy suggestions are put forward to improve the integration of industrialization,IT application,urbanization,and agricultural modernization in Zhejiang.