Research On The Size Of Strategic Petroleum Reserve Of China Based On System Dynamics

Oil is the important strategic resource to guarantee the smooth development of the national economy. Oil supply security is directly related to the sustained, healthy development of China's national economy, but also the social stability and development. In recent years, the unstable of international oil prices and volatile international situation and the continuously increase of our dependence on oil imports, resulting in an extremely severe situation in China's oil security, oil security has received increasing attention in government and community. Strategic Petroleum Reserve as a strategic means to ensure oil security, has been adopted in many countries. China has also started a National Strategic Petroleum Reserve Plan in 2004.This paper uses system dynamics to study the size of our Strategic Petroleum Reserve. First of all, on the basis of literature, the paper describes the concept of Strategic Petroleum Reserve and functions in detail , introduces the status of Strategic Petroleum Reserve at home and abroad and analyzes the world and China's oil supply and demand; Then we analyze the factors affecting the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and builds a system dynamics model on the basis of selecting a number of important factors to study the relationship between various factors. Next to we design two programs to study the scale of China's Strategic Petroleum Reserve of the next two decades, respectively taking oil prices and oil import dependency as the simulation variable and in the second program, according to the different pace of future economic development, we design three scenarios of the future economic high-speed, stable, low-speed development; Finally, simulation results are analyzed comparatively and we draw conclusions, and put forward some policy recommendations on the construction of China's Strategic Petroleum Reserve.