Study On Marginal Growth Structure Of China's Agricultural Exports

Since the 20 th century, with the rapid development of China's foreign trade, agricultural exports have been expanding, especially after joining the WTO, China had become the world's fifth largest exporter of agricultural products and the fourth largest agricultural trading nation, the value of agricultural exports up to $ 70.9 billion in 2014, but Chinese exports rely mainly on price advantage, with the rise in labor costs, the comparative advantage gradually weaken, Export trade conditions are deteriorating. China agricultural trade deficit has become the norm since 2004 How to make China's agricultural exports continued to develop and increase trade benefits, need to optimize the structure of agricultural products export marginal growth.By Feenstra extension decomposition method and Hummels- Klenow decomposition methods respectively analyzes our country agricultural product export marginal growth characteristics of time series and cross section, and using the non-parametric kernel density estimation technique analysis dynamic evolution of distribution characteristics of China's agricultural export growth breadth, quantity, price, in order to accurately study the dynamic change process of agricultural products export marginal growth structure. Further study on trade costs, the relative size of the economy, market access and other factors ‘s influences of China's major export partners of marginal growth, and discuss how to improve the structure of marginal growth.The results show that: China's agricultural exports is increasing in the share of world market, and mainly is labor-intensive products, the export market is mainly concentrated in Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, the United States, Germany, Malaysia and other regions. From China's agricultural product export growth of sequence features,cross-sectional characteristics and evolution of dynamic distribution get a unanimous conclusion : China's agricultural exports rely mainly on the intensive margin growth, expansion margin contribute little to export growth,in the intensive margin growth, the number of export growth have a dominant effect, export prices show a downward trend, especially in recent years, China's agricultural export prices are lower than the world average export prices, the trade pattern of China's agricultural products export growth is low price and high quantity. In the influence factors of intensive margin, the variable trade cost have the greatest impact, followed by market entry cost effect and income differences, economic scale with the minimal impact; influencing factors in marginal expansion, the biggest effect is the fixed trade cost, variable trade cost is second, the minimum is cost-effective of markets access, economic scale and income differences have not a significant influence on extend margin.Through the above analysis, this paper put forward the optimization of China's agricultural products export marginal growth structure, need to adjust the structure of export products and market structures, fostering technological innovation and human capital and other factors of production advantages, and increase policy support.