The Influence Of Producer's Reference Price To Production Scale Under Agricultural Target Price Policy

The price of agricultural products has been one of the issues of domestic agricultural market and the development of agriculture industry is bound to face. On the one hand, it is required to promote the formation of agricultural market price based on supply and demand of agricultural products. On the other hand, it should ensure that agricultural producers can get the corresponding return. Thus, agricultural target price reform policy came into being. But the formulation of the target price is one of the handicaps, and there are some uncertainties at the actual implementation. This can be discerned from the Xinjiang cotton-producing pilot areas. Through two years, cotton prices fell sharply, causing many farmers' discontent, and the controllability of target price and its basis and method are still to be explored. Therefore, this paper expects to reduce policies receptors'dissatisfaction, and discussed the psychological reactions based on specific policy objectives in order to provide better basis for the policy.Agricultural target price policy and Xinjiang pilot areas are combined, and production scale is regarded as the research object. Though psychological theory and price theory including prospect theory and reaction mechanism, firstly, the value of agricultural producers is analyzed theoretically, and it also analyzes the specific and possible changes in the scale of production. Then, by the empirical evidence of Xinjiang cotton pilot area, the relationship between cotton producers' reference price and production scale and the relationship between the balance of target price and reference price and the change of production scale are analyzed through descriptive statistical analysis and correlation analysis. The factors of influencing the reference price were extracted though multiple linear regression analysis, used to construct the corresponding regression model. Finally, the paper appropriates policy recommendations to improve the system of agricultural price policy.Some conclusions are obtained as follows:First, the contrast of market price, the amount of subsidy and reterence price would affect agricultural production scale; Second, the different elastics of agricultural products can lead to differences in agricultural production scale; third, there is some correlation between reference price of Xinjiang cotton farmers and their next year's cotton planting scale. When the sum of market price of cotton and the amount of subsidy is less than farmers'reference price, they would reduce production scale or give up growing cotton. Farmers who have smaller production scale are more sensitive to react. Fourth, Xinjiang cotton farmers'reference price is impacted by multiple factors. Wherein, the reference price of cotton increases with age in Xinjiang cotton farmers, but reduces with the expansion of cotton acreage last year. Besides, high income levels and satisfaction for reform would decrease Xinjiang cotton farmers'reference price to some extent.Finally, some suggestions are put forward:First, formulate cotton target price after investigating planting scale. Second, the reference price should be regarded as an important role and the main basis of drawing up target price of agricultural products. Third, the cotton farmers'reference price can be determined though the model of reference price. Forth, different target prices should correspond to different agricultural products due to varied elastic.