Research On Energy Planning Model Under The Conditions Of Climate Change In The City Of Beijing

Since the 20 th century,global climate change is aggravating and showing a warming trend,subjecting to large quantities of greenhouse gases emissions from energy consumption.It leads to a sharp increase in the energy demand,and has caused a severe contradiction between supply and demand of the regional energy system,which could bring challenges to energy systems policy makers.In addition,the significant complexity and uncertainties of energy management system and the interactions among the energy,environmental,social and economic systems,could bring much inconvenience to the design and implementation of energy system planning and management.With regard to the profound effects of climate change on the energy demand and energy planning,this thesis combinates effective climate model,regression analysis method and optimization of management tools into an integrated framework in order to explore the climate change trend.Meanwhile,a comprehensive model of energy demand forecast and energy provision optimization was developed under uncertainties through examining the complex and uncertain characteristics of the energy system.Specifically,the research contents are presented as follows(1)By using Global Climate Models(GCMs)and LARS-WG tools,the changing trends of climate factors(temperature)could be deduced.Based on this results,it is easy to identify and find the response relationship between energy demand,Gross Domestic Product(GDP),population and the price through the Degree Day Analysis and Linear Regression Analysis techniques.The electricity demand under climate change in the future was identified.(2)An innovative stochastic fuzzy chance constrained programming method was formulated for tackling the dual-uncertain parameters.Based on this theoretical optimization model,the city of Beijing is considered as the case for demonstrating its feasibility and applicability,where an energy system programming model under uncertainties in Beijing would be proposed,which could provide technical support for the design and execution of energy system planning and management in Beijing.(3)The long-term deterministic optimization model of the Beijing city was developed through incorporating the results provided by(1)into the regional energy planning model,such that the disturbances caused by uncertainties on the relationships between climate change and energy system were alleviated and an adaptive energy management shceme for climate change is determined,the influences of the climate change on the energy system were examined.The obtained results indicated that climate change will not only lead to the increase in energy demand but also aggravate the contradiction between energy supply and demand.The proposed adaptive energy management model for climate change under uncertainties has good adaptability.It could provide more reasonable,feasible and robust alternatives for local decision makers.