| With the rapid development of social economy in China,urbanization has entered into a roaring development stage.The average urbanization rate of China in 2016 reached 57.35%,while the land use rate still remains at a low level since the rural residential area has consecutively increased without scientific planning.In this regard,China has approved a range of policies of connecting city construction land increase and rural residential land decrease from 2014 to effectively alleviate the land use conflicts between city and countryside.Besides,China has officially implemented the two-child policy since January 1,2016.It indicates a brand new situation will be created in the population size within a few years,and the rising population will inevitably result in a rising construction land demand.Against this background,the paper takes Fuxian of Shaanxi Province as an example to construct the readjustment potentiality evaluation index system to calculate each rural residential area's readjustment potentiality in Fuxian respectively from nature,social,economy,land use situation and other factors based on the statistic data provided by Fuxian's Land and Resources Bureau and,empirical researches conducted in each town in the premise of two-child policy.Based on population and urbanization prediction,the paper calculates Fuxian's construction area in 2020 in terms of newly-built towns.Then it indicates the land site suitable for construction resorting to GIS spatial analysis tool,and finally calculates Fuxian's connecting city construction land increase and rural residential land decrease potentiality in each town.Based on a comprehensive literature review and an empirical research,this paper adopts field research,spatial analysis,AHP,entropy weight method,correction factor and other methods to calculate the rural residential area ' s readjustment potentiality;adopts average annual growth rate method and Malthus Model to predict the population size;and resorts to spatial analysis tool of ARCGIS10.2 to provide reference in terms of site suitable for new construction land.The paper may safely arrive at the following main conclusions:(1)In 2020,Fuxian will witness an overall population size of 157.3 thousand and an urbanization rate of 46.9%.The theoretical readjustment potentiality of rural residential area is 1,795.73 hm2,and Chafang Town,Fucheng Town and Zhangcunyi Town win the biggest potentiality value.(2)Based on the readjustment potentiality evaluation index system of rural residential area,we can find the number of new homes and the factor of residential area per capita have carried the biggest weight in factors affecting the release of theoretical readjustment potentiality,while other factors have shared an average weight.According to each town s correction factor obtained depending on the corresponding method,the paper is committed to calculate the county's each research area's actual potentiality of increase and decrease connection of urban and rural construction land.(3)The rural residential area's real readjustment potentiality of Fuxian is 933.23hm2,which is greater than the "connection" land demanded by urban construction land.The"connection" land potential area is 280hm2 in 2020.(4)The result of conducting connection program in Beidaode Town and other 7 towns has effectively verified the correctness and feasibility of theories constructed in this research.(5)In analyzing the urban construction land demand,the paper effectively resorts to the GIS spatial analysis tool to find out suitable site for new construction,in the hope of offering valuable references for Fuxian's economic development and construction. |
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