Construction And Application Of Tianjin Energy Consumption Model Based On SD

Regardless of the social progress and economic development is inseparable from the energy,the energy is more important role than before.because of this,the scholars all over the world on the research of this field of energy,are also more and more,in terms of energy itself in this field,most researchers put energy into the energy consumption and energy structure to study the two directions,energy consumption,mainly oil,the consumption of primary energy such as coal and the comparison of the total energy consumption,energy structure is mainly of various types of energy consumption accounted for case study in a particular area.Another research area is in the field of energy and other combined with the research,the research is combined with economy.In the research of the relationship between energy and economic development,because of the difference of the research background,the result also is not the same,but you can be sure is in today's social development environment,energy consumption and economic development between the two there is a closely linked.In the 21 st century,the direction of our country in this field of research has achieved many significant results.This article applies the method of system dynamics,and use vensim software to study the energy consumption structure in Tianjin,Tianjin belongs to a typical industrial city,the second industry belongs to the region's economic pillar industry,and the second industry in the industry has accounted for the entire secundiparity output value of more than 80%.But in such a mode and economic development will also bring a lot of negative effects,such as the excessive consumption of energy,environmental pollution and so on.In the face of these problems,this paper constructs the prediction model of Tianjin energy consumption structure,introducing various industries as a variable model,the fine for each industry,secondary industry energy introduces an energy model,specific analysis of energy consumption structure.During the simulation,the adjustment factor into the policy adjustment factor and technology factor,to set up different scenarios,from two aspects in order to fully reasonable to analyze and solve problems.Model,according to the structure of various variables in metallurgy industry energy consumption is larger,and the high degree of dependence on coal energy,according to the trend analysis of coal consumption of metallurgical industry will be more and more big,the other two petrochemical industry,electric power industry for electricity consumption is larger,the third industry of energy is greater than the first industry energy,and energy consumption growth is rising year by year.The end of the paper,according to the results of simulation are given in Tianjin development direction,results in lower energy consumption and economic growth to sustain at a constant level,realize the healthy development of "New normal" in Tianjin.