| By counting the domestic air cargo traffic volume,it is found that air cargo is unbalanced among areas and the data change regularly over time,so the main content of this paper is focused on analyzing the distribution of domestic air cargo and forecasting its development tendency in seven air cargo areas of the north China,the northeast China,the east China,the south China,the southwest China,the northwest China and Xinjiang area,and statistics are kept from the perspective of these seven areas.The following two points are studied.On the one hand,the distribution of air cargo is studied and it is found that domestic air cargo activities mainly occurred between regions,especially between the east China,the north China and the south China.Intraregional air cargo volume is less than 10% of the total number and the statistics show the trend of decreasing.On the other hand,the development trend of air cargo volume is studied in order to forecast the prospective air cargo volume by analyzing the rule of historical data.As domestic economic development is stable at present,policies concerned with air cargo become loose,it is expected that domestic air cargo will maintain the current development trend in the future,so time series methods are adopted in this paper.Individual forecasting models like two exponential smoothing prediction model,three exponential smoothing prediction model,grey GM(1,1)model and grey Verhulst model are used to forecast the intraregional and interregional air cargo volume respectively.Then,the accuracy of the prediction of these four methods is compared in order that two methods with highest prediction precision can be used as sub models to be combined by using optimal weighted method.It is found that combination forecasting model can reduce prediction errors and produce the results more precise by comparing the accuracy of each method.Finally,the intraregional and interregional air cargo volume from 2016 to 2020 is given by combination prediction method. |
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