The Research On Risk Assessment And Early Warning System For Petroleum Enterprise Key Projects

Oil is a non-renewable energy,possessing a high proportion in the energy consumption structure in our country,and has a great relationship with stable development of economic in our country.But oil projects are very important,because of its high investment,huge investment,long construction period,wide range,relatively high risk and high complexity,etc.It puts forward higher request to the enterprise,namely the dynamic risk management for the whole process of projects,and as far as possible to minimize the risk.First,the paper has a brief introduction to the key project definition,project risk definition,risk definition,risk assessment definition,risk early warning and related theory about risk.And then through the research of the existing risk assessment methods at home and abroad now,combined with the characteristics of China's oil enterprises project risk and project quantity,more in-depth study the risk characteristics of the key projects of petroleum enterprises and analyze the uncertain affecting factors taking the exploration and development projects as an example.Through the analysis the paper selects economic basic indexes and comprehensive assessment values as the basis of project risk assessment,and selects the wide application method of Monte Carlo simulation to carry out single project dynamic risk assessment and early warning about the key project of petroleum enterprises.On this basis and the fact that oil enterprise managers need pay much attention to the same country or region of the multi-projects risk,the paper puts forward three kinds of dynamic risk assessment methods for multi-projects: based on Monte Carlo simulation,based on Undrawing Level in Vertical and Horizontal Direction,combination of Monte Carlo simulation and Undrawing Level in Vertical and Horizontal Direction.Finally the paper takes three projects of a petroleum enterprise as examples,and applies of the assessment method proposed in this paper to carry out the dynamic risk assessment and early warning of single project and multi-projects,and further demonstrates the operability of the research method and it has a strong reference value to the practice of project management in petroleum enterprise.