Fragility Assessment Of Agricultural Flood Disasters In Hunan Province Based On Interval Number Measurement

Vulnerability of natural disaster exists objectively.It is an inevitable practical problem in agricultural economic management.In the process of gaming against the nature,only fully comprehend the vulnerability of natural disaster could human beings take scientific approaches and counter measurements,avoid the risks of natural disaster,obviate risks and even take advantages of the risks to promote the harmonious development between human and nature.In the agricultural economic management practice,we can neither establish a scientific agricultural development plan nor realize the rapid and sustainable development of the agricultural economy if we avoid the evaluation of regional disaster and its vulnerability.Therefore,the study on vulnerability of natural disaster has profound and persistent research significance.Hunan province suffers from severe flood and waterlogging disaster.Currently,the damage that flood and waterlogging disaster brought on the Hunan agricultural economic system presents no decreasing trend and it greatly hinders the agricultural economy in Hunan province.Therefore,studying the vulnerability of flood and waterlogging disaster in Hunan province has significant theoretical and practical meanings.Based on previous development history of vulnerability of natural disaster,this paper summarized the connotation and basic features of vulnerability,and defined vulnerability of agricultural flood and waterlogging disaster as an attribute that could not be quickly recovered.Such attribute refers to the financial losses of the agricultural economic system brought by and waterlogging disaster caused by torrential rains within a certain region.Through establish the basic framework of vulnerability assessment,this paper set from hazard inducing environment,hazard bearing body,hazard factor,these three basic elements,and chose thirteen evaluation indexes including: convenience of transportation,drainage development,forest coverage,length of flood embankment,regional economic development,completeness of emergency rescue counterplan,casualty insurance per capita,regional population density,farmland proportion in risk areas,proportion of paddy fields,crop susceptibility,regional annual frequency of torrential rain,annual strong rainfall amount.Based on these indexes,interval comprehensive evaluation was applied to building measurement value of evaluation indexes.Built on the evaluation data obtained from the expert panel,entropy method was applied to identifying the index weight.An evaluation model of vulnerability of the agricultural flood and waterlogging disaster was constructed;the traditional determinacyevaluation model was extended to non-determinacy evaluation framework;and the new evaluation model was evaluated to some extent.Considering the methods and theoretical models of building the article,this paper conducted empirical studies on fourteen prefectures in Hunan province,discovering that,regional drainage development,length of flood embankment,casualty insurance per capita and farmland proportion in risk areas are the key issues affected the vulnerability of agricultural flood waterlogging disaster.Vulnerability of agricultural flood and waterlogging disaster presented a descending order as: Yiyang,Yueyang,Hengyang,Changde,Changsha,Zhangjiajie,Xiangxi autonomous prefecture,Xiangtan,Huaihua,Shaoyang,Yongzhou,Zhuzhou,Chenzhou,Loudi.Generally speaking,the most vulnerable area that suffers flood and waterlogging disaster are terrains around Dongting Lake.Vulnerability of agricultural flood and waterlogging disaster is relatively high,mainly due to the well-developed water system,heavy task of preventing or controlling flood on river embankments,penultimate forest coverage of Hengyang city in Hunan province,poor soil and water conservation capacity and the second place of paddy density,top four listed population density.Vulnerability of Zhangjiajie and Xiangxi autonomous prefecture is between 5-6,mainly because of inadequate transportation development,low regional economic development level,minimum casualty insurance per capita,these three prominent issues.In the end,based on the practical research results,corresponding solutions were suggested from both microcosmic administration and macroscopic counter measurements.