Research On Risk Assessment Of Chemical Industrial Park Safety Based On Scarce Information

The development process of intensification and maximization of economic and environmental benefits is an inevitable trend of industrialization.At the same time,the concentration of dangerous sources also determines the high risk of chemical parks.The safety risk assessment of chemical industry parks requires a large amount of data support.However,since most of the parks lack the necessary basic statistics and the data of major accidents are extremely scarce,how to study a scientific and rational risk assessment method for chemical parks from the perspective of incomplete data information becomes Difficulties in current research.Based on the above considerations,the main research contents of this paper are as follows:(1)Based on the basic knowledge of risk assessment,the risk characteristics of chemical parks and the current major chemical park risk assessment methods,this paper analyzes the incomplete information in the three stages of risk identification and analysis,quantitative risk calculation and risk assessment in chemical parks.The impact of the analysis is that priority analysis should be carried out in key areas in the event of incomplete chemical park accident information.(2)According to the accident development process of the chemical park,the chemical park accident chain model was established,and the chemical equipment leakage scenario was determined as the initial event of the event tree model dynamic risk analysis.The FMEA method is used to determine the risk priority of the hazard source.Considering the incomplete information,lack of data,and the impact of fuzzy data on the risk assessment,the dynamic risk analysis of the hazard source is used as the leading analysis of quantitative risk assessment.Due to the lack of accident data,thispaper proposes a chemical equipment leakage event sequence model based on accident precursor information,establishes a relationship model between safety barrier failure probability,accident precursor information and major accident consequences,and predicts each safety barrier by stratified Bayesian method.The probability of posterior update of each accident consequence is realized by dynamic analysis of risk under incomplete information.(3)Using information diffusion theory to predict the probability of accidents,and establish the relationship between the consequences of accidents and the probability of death.Comprehensive consideration of the risk offsetting effect of personnel,equipment,environment and management in the whole process of the accident,and the establishment of a risk offset capability evaluation structure system.In view of the requirements for the accuracy and objectivity of the evaluation results,considering the ambiguity and subjectivity of the expert experience,the evidence theory is introduced to fuse the expert experience information.Aiming at the similarity of index information and the conflict of expert information in the evaluation process,it is proposed to use stratified evidence fusion to integrate evaluation information,and obtain regional risk offset coefficient through quantitative index comments.(4)Verify the chemical park safety risk assessment model under the condition of incomplete information proposed by the example application.The results show that the model established in this paper has operability and practicability and can be extended to the risk assessment of other hazard sources.Through the research in this paper,it helps to solve the problem of data scarcity and information ambiguity in chemical park risk assessment,and provides theoretical reference and data support for effective risk control measures in chemical parks.And guide them to avoid risks,pre-inspection and pre-maintenance of chemical equipment.