Modeling And Application Of Pedestrians' Endurance Time At Signalized Intersection

The intersection is an important node in the road network of cities,in which pedestrians conflict with other traffic participants easily,what's more,pedestrian traffic accidents happen.According to statistics of all traffic accidents,the number of pedestrian traffic accidents cannot be underestimated,and unsafe acts of pedestrians such as illegal crossings are one of the most important causes lead to high rate of pedestrian traffic accidents.In the planning and design of most signalized intersections,priority is usually given to the traffic efficiency of motor vehicles rather than requirements of pedestrians for crossing the intersections.As a vulnerable group when comparing with motor vehicle and non-motor vehicle,pedestrians have a great deal of randomness of traffic acts owing to the differences between their subjective consciousness and psychology,leading to frequent unsafe acts such as illegal crossings.So how to improve the safety of pedestrians and reduce unsafe acts such as illegal crossings have become one of the main study direction in pedestrian traffic.This paper chooses the pedestrians who arrive at the crosswalk waiting area when the lights for pedestrians are red as the research object and analyze the distribution and its influencing factors of their endurance time using survival anaylysis method based on the actual traffic conditions at signalized intersections in Kunming.This paper uses a combination of manual surveys and video surveys to obtain data,a total of 4261,about the endurance time of pedestrians at intersections of Renmin Middle Road with Zhengyi Road and Bailong Road with Xinying Road in Kunming,and conduct statistical analysis on the data of endurance timeBased on the actual survey data of endurance time,this paper uses the Kaplan-Meier analysis method,a non-parametric method of survival analysis method,to analyze the distribution of endurance time at different signalized intersections under the effects of single factors.The results show that the normal distribution can not be used to describe the distribution of endurance time under the effects of single factors.And it is found that different travel time,different characteristics and so on have different impacts on endurance time.This lay a foundation for construction of endurance time model.Based on the results of non-parametric model,covariates that affect the endurance time of pedestrians when crossing the street are selected and conduct a proportional hazards(PH)test on the covariates.Then,Cox proportional hazards model was established.and the endurance time threshold,90.12 seconds,was inferred by estimating the endurance time under different percentiles.Next,the effect of each covariate on endurance time at the signalized intersection was analyzed and the model was verified.Finally,the signalized intersections of Renmin Middle Road with Zhengyi Road and Bailong Road with Xinying Road were optimized,and suggestions were given to improve crossing behaviors of pedestrians based on the analysis of the endurance time threshold.