Analysis And Forecast On Changing Trend Of The Water Consumption In Shanghai In View Of “Water-saving Priority”

“Water-Saving Priority” is a guideline of the Chinese water resources management in the new period,which was proposed by General Secretary Xi Jinping.This paper analyzes the background and characteristics of the “Water-Saving Priority” theory and its specific requirements about water resources management.Take Shanghai city as example,the changing process and inner rules of agricultural water consumption,industrial water consumption,urban public water consumption and residential water consumption are analyzed.This paper forecasts the data of water consumption of Shanghai in the future,considering “Water-Saving Priority”,and puts forward some suggestions in further implementation of “Water-Saving Priority”.This paper holds that “Water-Saving Priority” is a macro policy with the Chinese characteristics of water resources management and an inevitable requirement of solving the contradiction between the urban development and the shortage of water resources.It is a feasible policy in the constructing of water resources management system and tallies with the actual situation of Chinese social development.Compared with the traditional water saving theories,“Water-Saving Priority” theory has four characteristics.1)Emphasize saving in water taking,supplying,using and blowdown.2)Lay stress on the increase of water use efficiency and water saving efficiency.3)Establish the approximate maximum value of total water use as an ecological redline.4)Represent the positive attitudes about restraining our own behaviors and adapting to environment carrying capacity.Relating the specific work of water resources management to the changing trend of the water consumption in Shanghai,this paper presents the analyzed result.There was almost no increase in the total water use of Shanghai from 2007 to 2016.Agricultural water consumption was relatively stable and industrial water consumption continued to decline.Urban public water consumption and residential water consumption showed consistent growth.The structure of water use in Shanghai changed significantly because of the water resources management including water affairs integrative administrative system,the implementation of the most stringent water management system and the establishment of water-saving society.As the regional economic development has entered a new stage,the water resources exploitation and management in Shanghai also began a new phase which reflected the idea of “Water-Saving Priority”.So study thoroughly on this case is meaningful.The “Water-Saving Priority” theory should be used into the practice of water resources management over the years ahead.So after qualitative prediction,agricultural water consumption,industrial water consumption,urban public water consumption and residential water consumption are forecasted quantitatively based on a goal of building excellent global city in 2035 and those restrictive targets in the Shanghai Urban Comprehensive Planning.The principal component analysis of factor analysis methods is chosen to use for selecting the key factors influencing water consumption and the GM(1,1)model is applied to forecast future data of these key factors.Then this paper uses RBF and MLP Neural Networks to forecast the data of four different water consumptions of Shanghai from 2017 to 2035.Study result shows that the reducing trend of the total water use of Shanghai which maintained almost 10 years will continue to remain in the future.From 2017 to 2035,agricultural water consumption will decline slightly with 1.56% per year on average and industrial water consumption will record a small increase with 0.30% per year on average.Urban public water consumption and residential water consumption will remain constant on the whole.But the total water use will still be steadily dropping with 0.09% per year on average.The forecast results of total water consumption corresponding to 2020 and 2035 are 8 billion 150 million cubic meters and 8 billion 52 million cubic meters.The water consumption per 10-thousand-yuan GDP is 23.26 cubic meters in 2020 and 10.48 cubic meters in 2035.The water consumption for every 10-thousand-yuan worth of industrial value added is 50.76 cubic meters in 2020 and 37.77 cubic meters in 2035.Forecasting method of this paper is logical and reliable.Though not perfect,it has proved to be operational under the existing data conditions.The precision of models can meet the need and the relative errors of the forecast results are little.So the forecasting data and analyzing results of this paper have theoretical and practical value.In spite of the fact that the total amount of water use in the city is relatively stable,each water consumption will still increase or reduce in different ways as it is influenced by economic development.The government needs to carry out the policy of classification administration of water consumption and adjust their percentage rate according to city plan.It helps to achieve an optimal allocation of water resources under the premise of “Water-Saving Priority” and to make urban development conform to environmental carrying capacity of resources.Based on the above study,in order to implement “Water-Saving Priority” in several fields,this paper concludes with some measures and suggestions such as reforming irrigation water price in agriculture,revising standards on water quota,establishing the system of water resources cascade utilization,popularizing a model of the contract management in water conservation and practicing nationwide water-saving action projects.This dissertation is supported by the projects named “Technical Check of Shanghai Total Water Consumption and Water Use Efficiency Evaluation Indexes” in 2015 and 2016 from Bureau of Taihu Lake Basin under the Ministry of Water Resources.It is also supported by the project named“Technical Check of Total Water Consumption and Water Use Efficiency Evaluation Indexes in Each District of Shanghai for the Assessment of the Most Stringent Water Management System”in 2017 From the Shanghai Municipal Water Administration and the project named “Research on Water-Saving Society Construction” which was one of the key projects of philosophy and social science research from the Ministry of education.