Research On Engineering Risk Management Based On Rough Set Theory

In the national economy of China,water conservancy is a major project closely related to people's livelihood.The stable development of water conservancy industry is an important guarantee for the long-term stability of the country.Therefore,how to scientifically and maximally analyze and predict risks,and accurately analyze and judge the possible risk status,influencing factors and changing trends in the future are the urgent problems for the project risk managers.At present,many mature theoretical models and research methods have been established for risk management of water conservancy projects.However,the existing system of project risk management has the problem that the weight of risk evaluation index is too subjective.For example,the methods of analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and expert evaluation that have been widely used mainly rely on artificial evaluation to obtain the corresponding data and weights,so the results are too dependent on expert experience.Therefore,based on the analysis of the characteristics of water risk factors,this paper uses rough set theory to calculate the objective weight of risk indicators and conduct risk analysis.The main contents and research results of this paper are as follows:(1)The basic concepts of knowledge system and rough set theory are briefly expounded,and the basic methods of conditional attribute reduction based on rough set theory are introduced.By analyzing the equivalence classes of decision attributes and conditional attributes,the significance of conditional attributes is described.(2)The objective weight of each risk index is obtained by calculating the dependence degree between the conditional attribute and the result attribute.This method overcomes the shortcomings of the traditional method which has strong subjectivity,makes the evaluation result more accurate and effective,and provides a great help for the risk management analysis and decision-making of water conservancy projects.(3)The objective weight calculated by rough set theory is applied to practical engineering cases,and the feasibility of this evaluation model in risk analysis and evaluation of engineering projects is illustrated by examples.At the same time,the method is compared with the traditional evaluation method,which proves the accuracy and superiority of the method.