Research On The Development Path Of Global Energy Internet Based On Scenario Analysis

The global energy Internet strategy is based on clean energy,focusing on electricity,and promoting global demand for electricity in a clean and green way.It is of great significance in mitigating environmental problems and improving energy security.Rational planning of the development path is the key to ensuring the smooth implementation of the global energy Internet.Therefore,this paper studies and discusses the development path of global energy Internet.Taking full account of the differences in energy resources and society in the world,and the time and space uncertainty of global energy Internet development,this paper builds a three-dimensional development path analysis model of ’factor-time-space’ based on scenario analysis method,which is used to quantitatively analyzes the development path of global energy Internet.Firstly,the target elements and influencing factors of global energy Internet development are selected and the time nodes are divided into three research stages in 2020,2030 and 2050.According to the network foundation,the degree of market integration,and the geographical location,the world is divided into ten regions,and the planning values of the target elements at different stages of each region are determined.Secondly,by using the extended STIRPAT model,the relationship between the target element and the influencing factor is established,which is the ’element-time-space’ three-dimensional development path analysis model,and the model coefficient is determined by the ridge regression analysis method.Then,based on scenario analysis,the development scenarios of influential factors in different regions in different time periods are predicted.Substituting the development of each element into the path analysis model,the development of the target elements under each path is obtained,which is the path set.In addition,the difference between each path target element and the planned value is calculated,and the path optimization is performed.Finally,taking the North American region as an example,based on the historical data of the target elements and influencing factors,the North American global energy Internet development path scenario analysis model was established,and three preferred paths were selected.