Design Institute-led Engineering General Contracting Project Based On Monte Carlo Method And CIM Model Risk Management Research:Taking Z Project As An Example

Faced with the pressure on structural adjustment of fixed assets investment,overcapacity,and the maturity of infrastructure construction and regional distribution,the competition in the survey and design market is becoming increasingly fierce.Traditional professional large-scale survey and design institutes are unable to maintain saturated business volume and face shrinking business volume.The pressure of many survey and design companies has fallen,and some companies are even at a loss.From the current point of view,the professional survey and design institute develops to the engineering company model,and the business scope from the single engineering survey and design to the project project management and engineering general contracting development is an inevitable trend,engineering general contracting,as a kind of almost throughout the entire project implementation process of construction management mode,but also the key point of the development of the design institute business transformation.While designing institute as the upstream in the process of engineering project construction enterprise,the implementation of the project general contracting mode has a natural advantage,but in lack of implementation of the specific project construction and project management experience,especially in project risk management a lot of deficiencies,such as risk factor analysis insufficient comprehensive correlation analysis,risk factors,risk assessment,lack of quantitative analysis and so on.Z project is exactly the general contracting project undertaken by T design institute in this form.This paper expounds the risk management problems faced by the Z-engineering general contracting project led by T Design Institute in the implementation process,and compares and analyzes the difference between the contractor’s risk under the general contracting mode and the traditional contracting mode,and according to Z The characteristics of the project general contracting project,using the combination of the checklist and the expert questionnaire to identify the risks of the project,identify internal and external risks: political,economic,social,natural,technical,contract,management and Eight categories of risks such as behavior.Considering the lack of correlation between risk factors in the previous risk analysis model,this paper uses Monte Carlo method and CIM model to estimate and analyze the risk of Z project general contracting project.This paper uses Crystal Ball software to realize quantitative risk analysis of Z project general contracting project,accurately identify Z project general contracting project regulations,residents demolition and resettlement,natural disasters,economic situation,national local policy,engineering design(survey,drawings,etc.)Key risk factors such as incomplete clauses,omissions,quality,schedule,HSE management,contractor risk behaviors,and corresponding measures for risk-related measures,and dynamic monitoring,we can provide decisions and recommendations for risk management of similar projects.It provides an effective scientific basis for risk management of engineering general contracting projects led by design institutes in the future.