Research On Cost Risk Identification And Evaluation Of Prefabricated Building Construction

Prefabricated buildings have some advantages: convenient construction,material and energy saving,environmental protection,and reduced dependence on labor;it will be the development trend of China's construction industry in the future.However,due to the many uncertainties in the construction process of the prefabricated building,the actual cost is deviated from the planned cost.Therefore,the prefabricated building has a large cost risk in the construction process.On the other hand,the construction unit does not have a comprehensive understanding and reasonable management of the cost of the prefabricated building,which affects the development of the prefabricated building.Consequently,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to carry out research on the risk identification and evaluation of prefabricated buildings.On the basis of related research of prefabricated building at home and abroad,this paper combined five principles of risk identification and the actual situation of China's prefabricated building development,and identified 54 cost risk influencing factors in the construction stage of the prefabricated building from four aspects:economy,technology,environment and management.On this basis,the risk factors were collected and analyzed by the questionnaire and factor analysis method,and the prefabricated construction cost risk evaluation index system was constructed,including four first-level indicators and 14 second-level indicators.The risk assessment model of the prefabricated building cost was established.The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method was used to determine the weight of the risk influencing factors.Combining the risk occurrence probability and the risk to generate loss,the maximal risk moving surface method based on the data envelopment analysis model was used to determine the importance ranking of factors of cost risk.Taking an actual prefabricated building project as an example,using the established prefabricated building construction cost risk assessment index system and the prefabricated building construction cost risk assessment model,the risk factors of the prefabricated construction project were mainly price fluctuations,capital risks,prefabricated component design and construction,contract management and change claims,construction site quality and safety,and put forward response measures aboutcorresponding cost risk.