Research On System Vulnerability Of Green Building Project Based On System Dynamics

In recent years,the rapid development of the world economy is accompanied by increasingly serious energy and environmental issues,which have triggered a series of global climate issues,becoming one of the great challenges faced by the global economic and social development in the 21 stcentury,and people have gradually realized the importance of sustainable development.After the reform and opening up,China has developed rapidly,and its material wealth has also been rapidly improved.However,serious environmental problems have followed.As one of the pillar industries of China's national economic development,the construction industry consumes plenty of energy,and its impact on the environment cannot be ignored.To solve these problems,it is necessary to reduce the consumption of land,energy and other resources,and the pollution of buildings to the surrounding environment.In order to realize the sustainable development of construction industry,green building came into being.Compared with traditional building projects,green building projects pay more attention to energy conservation and environmental protection.While making a healthy and comfortable living environment for users,they achieve a harmonious coexistence with the surrounding environment,but also result in more prominent risk problems.This paper analyzes the research status of the vulnerability of green buildings at home and abroad deeply,which presents that most scholars ignored vulnerability risk when they studied the risk of the green building project system.However,researchers regard vulnerability as one of the key research directions in the field of ecological and sustainable development.Future research focuses on the continuous improvement of the concept and theoretical framework of vulnerability,the mechanism of vulnerability and the driving factors of vulnerability.Vulnerability of systems,as an attribute,hidden in the system of green building projects,has a certain impact on the risks of green building projects.Therefore,studying green buildings from the perspective of vulnerability will be helpful to solve the hidden risk problems in the green building system,promote the development of green building and the popularization of green building concept.Combining with the method of system dynamics and according to the thought of system engineering,this paper explores the driving factors of system vulnerability of green building projects in the dimension of sensitivity,adaptability and exposure from the perspective of life cycle.Sensitivity drivers are mainly analyzed in the macro perspective of project scale and project goals.Adaptability drivers are mainly analyzed in the medium perspective of construction management experience,ability,training and regulations.Exposure drivers are mainly analyzed in the micro perspective of designing quality,building quality,building materials and equipment.Analyze the cause tree,the result tree and causal feedback loops of each driving factors in this model by establishing the causal feedback model of driving factors of the system vulnerability of green building projects.Then,through the classification of variables in the model,this paper adopts the GI method to empower those variables respectively,determines the relationship between variables and system dynamics equation,establishes the stock flow model of driving factors of the system vulnerability of green building projects.Apply this model to an actual green building project for simulation analysis,and adjust the adjustable variables in the model to analyze the driving effect of each variable on the system vulnerability of green building project with the method of control variables.The results show that the qualification level of the construction,the design positivity and the project scale play a greater role in driving the system vulnerability of green building project,while the communication efficiency,the experience of project management and the degree of the realization of economic goals of the project play a weaker role in driving the system vulnerability of green building project.According to the results of model simulation analysis,it is suggested that the system vulnerability of green building project should be reduced by selecting construction enterprises with higher construction qualification,enhancing the initiative degree of designers and controlling project scale reasonably,so as to provide reference and basis for studying the avoidance of vulnerability.This paper studies green building projects from the unique perspective of vulnerability risk,considers the systemic of green building projects,and adopts the method of system dynamics to analyze the complex relationships among the driving factors of the system vulnerability of green building projects dynamically,which makes up for the deficiency that other research methods ignore the correlation of various factors within the system.At the same time,this paper simulates the changes of different driving factors,and provides reference for avoiding of the system vulnerability of green building projects.However,as the author's lack of professional knowledge and ability,bias is inevitable when analyzing the driving factors of system vulnerability of the green building projects,and subjective judgment exists when analyzing the functional relationship among the driving factors,etc.All these problems need to be improved in the future research.