Research On Scenario Construction And Situation Deduction For Emergency Simulation Exercise

Emergency management has attracted much attention in the whole world due to the serious consequences of various types of emergency events.It is crucial to improve the decision-making capability of emergency response commanders.As an important means to validate and assess the emergency plan and to improve the capability of commanders,emergency exercises have been widely applied in emergency training.Based on distributed simulation technology and dynamic desktop exercises,emergency simulation exercise shows strong adaptability,high efficiency and low cost.It has become the main way of emergency exercise at home and abroad.Emergency Exercise Simulation Platform(EESP)based on the dynamic desktop exercise is capable of configuring the basic information of the exercise,controlling the exercise process and evaluating the exercise effect on the computers.As an important part of emergency exercises,situation deduction is the foundation of visualization of situation and the premise of scientific and effective decision-making.Emergency simulation exercise is driven by scenario,which is the basis for real-time decision-making of emergency personnel.Through summing up and analyzing domestic and international emergency plans and historical cases,this thesis extracts relevant elements of scenarios.The analysis is challenging because of the multiple areas that emergencies relate to,the widely presented heterogeneous information and the various ways to express knowledge.This thesis applies the theory of knowledge element and proposes a unified representation of scenario elements using the knowledge element model.Furthermore,the association rules among scenario elements are analyzed to make it easier to maintain and understand for emergency management personnel.On the study of scenario elements,the scenario is taken as the input of the situation deduction in EESP.Then the process of situation deduction,evolution algorithm,the generation of derivative events and the way of carrying out dynamic scenario construction during the exercise are analyzed.Moreover,emergency simulation exercise situation deduction system has been designed and developed to achieve the configuration of scenario elements,the situation deduction,the display of the situation,the exercise data records and other functions.The situation deduction system designed in this thesis has following contributions.Firstly,it provides support for the preparation of emergency exercise so as to improve the rationality and scientificity of the emergency simulation exercise.Secondly,it simulates the evolution of emergencies in the implementation stage of emergency exercise.Lastly,it is of great importance to improve the decision-making capability of emergency management personnel.In summary,the situation deduction system proposed has high application and popularization value in emergency management.